I appreciate your opinion on that. I have been very curious about these support numbers, but realize they must surely be too fluid to measure, given these candidates are still mostly putting money together to make a long run.
Florida would explain a lot certainly.
I think the only reason the likes of Jeb Bush (or Rubio) are even being mentioned is because Florida is a "Must win."
It is seen as either of these two being certain to take it.
But as for me, I'd rather lose with the correct ideas and policies, than "win" with the wrong ideas and policies. When we win with the wrong ideas and policies, our side's fortunes are ultimately damaged by being held responsible for the disasters thus created. See the Presidencies of both George Bushes, but primarily HW.