China produces ~40% of their oil themselves. Of the ~60% imported, about half of that comes from the Middle East.
Where China imports oil from is more important than how much.
One of the justifiable reasons China has for increasing the capability of its Navy is to secure its sea lines of communication/commerce (oil supply routes).
Currently ~70% of China’s oil is imported from the Middle East. This clearly necessitates traversing the Indonesian straits (Sunda or Malacca) or circumnavigating most of the world to skirt below the Cape of Good Hope and Cape Horn.
China cannot fight any protracted war involving the US Navy under this situation for at least 15+ years. Indeed, without using its nukes, it could not currently force the Indonesian straits against a local coalition. In a war involving India, China would be forced to convoy its tankers, which would be difficult without a secure base in the Western IO.
If India becomes an anti-China belligerent (which I think China would do much to avoid), I would expect China to promise Pakistan the areas of Jammu, Kashmir, and most of Gujarat in return for a well timed attack and basing, with a large Chinese force making an attack through the Uttarakhand (Himalaya Mountains) to flank the Indian armies and put pressure on New Delhi. The strategy being to knock India out and force concessions, not take all of India. The mere threat of this would likely force Indian neutrality.
With a few more aircraft carriers, the Chinese will own the South China Sea and be able to dominate local powers, but they will still not be able to force the Indonesian straits without putting boots on the ground. I think landing a force to control the Straights of Malacca would be too difficult and costly, but an amphibious assault on both sides of the Sunda Straight wouldn’t be as difficult and would have the dual effect of putting Jakarta in peril, likely forcing Indonesia to accept Chinese terms.
If I were running the PLAN, I would be looking to establish a minimum of 8 fleet carrier strike groups, the amphibious capability to put 50,000 troops ashore, and a robust anti-submarine capability. I would also be sorting out a plan to take forward operating bases (islands) near the approaches to the Indonesian straights, should the need arise. In the IO, I’d be looking for a secure naval base near the Horn of Africa or on the Arabian Peninsula itself.
If I were the Chinese government, I’d be looking for secure supplies of oil, either domestic fracking or more pipelines from Russian and the ‘stans.
China produces ~40% of their oil themselves. Of the ~60% imported, about half of that comes from the Middle East.