Posted on 05/29/2015 4:46:45 AM PDT by bestintxas
OPEC’s attempt to over-produce crude oil for export to crush prices and bankrupt the American shale-fracking oil boom has failed, according to a draft OPEC long-term strategy report seen by Reuters ahead of the cartel’s policy meeting in Vienna on June 1st.
The report forecasts that crude supply from rival non-OPEC producers, led by the U.S., “will grow until at least 2017.”
“Since June 2014, oil prices have experienced a significant reduction, reaching levels even lower than the crisis experienced in 2008, yet non-OPEC supply is still showing some growth,” the OPEC report said.
Flat-to-down worldwide demand for oil means that OPEC’s 30 million barrels per day (bpd) share of production will fall to 28.2 million. The cartel can either cut output from the current over-production level of 31 million bpd, or tolerate depressed oil prices for a much longer period.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
yep
mark
????
Some of these writers just make stuff up with even pretending to look at numbers.
EIA estimates that global consumption of petroleum and other liquids grew by 0.9 million b/d in 2014, averaging 92.0 million b/d for the year. EIA expects global consumption will grow by 1.2 million b/d in 2015 and by 1.3 million b/d in 2016. Forecast global consumption growth was revised upward from last month's STEO by an average of 0.2 million b/d in both 2015 and 2016, as lower oil prices stimulate demand growth more than previously expected. Projected global oil-consumption-weighted real gross domestic product (GDP), which increased by an estimated 2.7% in 2014, is projected to grow by 2.5% in 2015 and by 3.0% in 2016.
I think the writer is talking of crude oil while the graph you mentioned is talking about petroleum and other liquids.
There are a lot of liquids other than crude out there, like condensates, NGLs, GTL, synthetics, etc. It would not surprise me if crude is flat or declining like they say and the growth is in non-crude liquids.
What is EIA’s definition for the liquids contained in that graph?
These things appear to always be muddled.
Crude oil demand is not down. I have seen no reports with numbers that support such a claim.
Global oil demand growth is projected at 1.1 mb/d for 2015, to 93.6 mb/d, up from 0.7 mb/d in 2014. The forecast is unchanged since last month as an improving economic outlook for Europe and a cold winter lift projections of OECD demand but offset reduced expectations for the FSU, the Middle East and Latin America.
https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/
If you are interested in reading the details of how transportation fuel demand is rising in the different parts of the world:
https://www.iea.org/media/omrreports/fullissues/2015-05-13.pdf
“Crude oil demand is not down.”
Perhaps, but I know for a fact that what they call crude production even for Texas is not actually all crude, and contains a lot of condensates. I bet up to 20-25% is not crude currently being produced.
The definition of crude is that the liquid originally existed as a liquid in the ground.
Like I said, things have become muddled.
Read the link in post #8. They break down the demand by products. Year-to-year, gasoline, diesel, Jet/Kerosene and others demand has been up every quarter.
Don’t look at the constant seasonal swings, but compare 1Q 14 to 1Q 15, 4Q 13 to 4Q 14, etc. Refined products from crude oil climb each quarter compared for years, and still continue to climb.
Demand did not slow, supply just grew faster.
But what happens is condensates like from the Eagleford, which make up most of the Eagleford’s liquids production, is blended and transported along with crude to the refineries.
I do not know enough about how a refinery accounts for this, but am wondering if they call it all crude if it is blended together.
My point is maybe crude is not really crude.
Some condensate contains enough heavier molecules to be used in transportation fuel.
If it is liquid below ground, and liquid above ground at atmospheric pressures and temperatures, it is going to be counted in the oil category, and always has.
If it is liquid below ground and gas above ground at atmospheric pressures and termpatures, it is going to be counted in the NGL category.
Great news for Americans and bad news for the Opecker princes and for the Iranian and Russian thugs.
Most of the Eagleford liquid production is oil, not condensate. They are measured independently by the state.
Oil Production = 1,016,722 BPD in 2014
http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/media/7078/eaglefordproduction_oil_perday.pdf
Condensate Production = 272,942 BPD in 2014
http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/media/7077/eaglefordproduction_condensate_perday.pdf
Also note that refineries buy oil on specifications and price differently for oil too light or too heavy for their refinery design.
I suspect the demand changed when the price of crude fell by half.
Global demand continues to rise.
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm
But you are certainly right that low prices didn’t lower demand.
“If it is liquid below ground, and liquid above ground at atmospheric pressures and temperatures, it is going to be counted in the oil category, and always has.”
I disagree based upon my experience.
At times, crude and condensates are not blended and are collected, stored and transported separately. In that case, they are not called crude.
“If it is liquid below ground and gas above ground at atmospheric pressures and termpatures, it is going to be counted in the NGL category.””
That is not the way it works. NGL is comprised of hydrocarbons as a gas in the ground and turns into a liquid at surface.
I am speaking of how the EIA counts the production in terms of their data.
NGL is comprised of hydrocarbons as a gas in the ground and turns into a liquid at surface.
Propane, ethane are gas at atmospheric temperature & pressure: 14.5 psia, 60°F
“Most of the Eagleford liquid production is oil, not condensate. They are measured independently by the state.”
You are missing my point: As a Reservoir Engineer for 40 years, there is zero doubt that the liquids which are produced from Eagleford are predominately NOT crude. The references you make are reports by the state of Texas which call it oil, although in reality it is not.
It is all about definitions, and, once again, it is muddled.
“NGL is comprised of hydrocarbons as a gas in the ground and turns into a liquid at surface.
Propane, ethane are gas at atmospheric temperature & pressure: 14.5 psia, 60°F “
Correct. It is not a liquid that tunns into a gas like you said but vice versa
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