Not really interested in debating the merits of this specific plan. This is what he told me. I assume if the Military people thought it would work, then it might have worked. In any case, my friend seemed to think it would have worked, but I myself don't really know.
You said earlier that time was on the side of the Confederates (or words to that effect), that if Lincoln did nothing the Confederacy would be a reality. Lincoln, from many indications, thought time was on his side, that if the stand-off continued Southerners would come to their senses. He may have been wrong. He probably was wrong. But if his understanding of the situation was that time was on his side, he didn't *NEED* the other side to fire first.
I think time was on the Confederate's side. I think the longer they went about their affairs peaceably, the more ingrained and accepted would become the break from the Union. Of course, part of the problem with analyzing what happened years ago is that we have the advantage of hindsight. We *KNOW* what did happen, but could the people there at the time have seen the same things we see today? I doubt it.
I think time was on the Confederate's side, but perhaps they couldn't actually see this, just as you suggested.
What is obvious to me is the fact that both sides woefully underestimated the other side's resolve. I think Lincoln believed his invasion force would make quick work of the trouble makers, and put an end to this silly secession nonsense.
I think he failed to realize just how reactionary people would be at realizing they were being invaded for the purpose of subjugation. I think his gift for reading people failed him here. There is something about people coming on to your land to force you to do something against your will that revs up the fighting spirit. I think causes which may or may not have a lot of public support will suddenly acquire galvanized public support if people feel as if something threatens them, and nothing can be more threatening to people than the idea that someone has sent soldiers at you to bend you to their will.
I think the Confederates failed to realize that humiliating Lincoln was a very foolish thing to do, especially when you look at the relative weights between the population under his command and that of their own. In their efforts to humble him, they failed to reckon with his fighting spirit, which was demonstrably stronger than that of any ordinary man. Lincoln was not some effeminate dandy. He was a rough hewn man's man who grew up fighting. They should have better taken his measure before cornering him.
Color me skeptical. A lot of people will tell you they believed Lincoln was wonderful until they read some revisionist book that "opened their eyes." A lot of those people just aren't telling the truth. They liked those revisionist books because they confirmed what they'd heard years before.
I think Lincoln was both Angel and Demon. He exists in a quantum state of superposition, and what aspect of him appears depends a lot on who is opening the box.
Anyways, I'm surprised you didn't ask me about the letter. Wouldn't looking for it be the first thing you would do if you had heard such a story?
I am directed by the President of the United States to notify [you] to expect an attempt will be made to supply Fort Sumter with provisions only, and that if such attempt be not resisted, no effort to throw in provisions, arms, or ammunition will be made without further notice or in case of an attack upon the fort.
Doesn't seem particularly insulting or provocative. A little brusque maybe, but to the point. The letter or note, though, was simply there to confirm and establish the message that the emissary was to convey. The piece of paper wasn't as important as the emissary's diplomatic skill in conveying the message. It would have been foolish for anyone to take offense.
Okay, I'll bite. What letter?