I heard the media narrative is that UKIP gets no seats at all in their projections and that its to be a 272-272 Von-Lab split with LDP making up the difference
Projections show currently UKIP will keep at least 1, but some say 2 of their current 2 seats.....the likelihood is that is will be much more and the pollsters are going to look very silly as they have in the past.
Sample is the key - if you base a sample on support of the 2010 election, where the Lib Dems were polling far higher and the UKIP vote was just 3% - since then, they have won the European election with 27% of the national vote and won two of three of the last by elections - the outcome of this will obviously point to a far smaller UKIP vote.
The reality is - it will be much higher.