The problem with McCullum is she is equating (as is most of the driveby media) independents with moderates. Many moderates are independent voters, but most are democrat or democrat leaning.
Many independents are conservative, or are open to support conservatives, but just not Republicans who are CINO (Conservative In Name Only).
Of course the Leftists in the democrat party and media (and yes, I understand they are the same) hope that independent=moderate=democrat voter.
Cruz should be able to win both the conservative GOPers and the conservative moderates. That might equal 25 percent of the whole electorate. I’m not saying he won’t win, but he’ll need most of the rest of the GOP and the moderate independents to do so.