Posted on 04/13/2015 11:47:23 PM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
"........The Wisconsin governor leads in the latest Fox News poll..,leads in most Iowa polling and is either tied or ahead in New Hampshire.
Even with Paul,Cruz,Ben Carson and Mike Huckabee all at or near double digits,Walker is within 1.2 percentage points of Bush in the RealClearPolitics polling average.And even that is mainly attributable to an ABC News/Washington Post poll that has Bush up by a bigger margin than any other recent survey.
Since his announcement,Cruz has been pretty consistently been polling in the double digits.PublicPolicyPolling found his national support exploding from 5 percent to 16 percent.
What if that happens to Rubio and Paul too?At some point,it has to start eating into Walker’s base...
[SNIP]
...Walker is a governor,and for some Republican voters who have take the criticism of Barack Obama’s “community organizer” past seriously,that’s going to count for something.He can argue that his three tea party upstarts are simply a debating society.
Just as important,for the moment Walker is beating Bush.You don’t have to engage in total wishful thinking to think he might be a credible general election candidate.
Conservatives have been hungry for that.Not since Ronald Reagan has one of their own become president. Most years,conservatives have to decide between their principles and throwing away the presidency on a Michele Bachmann type who can’t win.
You know in your heart who’s right,but you know in your gut who can win.
That’s going to be a hard thing to beat.It’s an all-or-nothing proposition,however.If at some point Walker no longer looks like he can beat Bush or that he is not as strong of a Hillary opponent as Rubio or Paul,he is in trouble.
Conservatives might be in trouble too.The only way Jeb Bush can win the nomination is if conservatives fracture.What’s made this season different is that so far they haven’t. But the primary season is still young.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailycaller.com ...
Your opinion,
not mine.
Wasserman Schultz would know about tinsel-wrapped prunes, I’m sure.
In whose imagination does placing women with no capability for intelligent thought in positions of responsibility help advance the idea of women’s equality, anyway?
Because it’s not about advancing anything but their socialist dream of transforming America.
I keep hoping that Ben Carson will spare us and himself the cringe induced trepidation, and decide not to run. He can keep making money on the motivational speech circuit.Ben at his stage in life is never going to be a decent candidate for president. That job requires an actors skill set he clearly doesn’t have.
Why don’t you put forward your candidate and point out their strengths?
That would be a change and something worthwhile to add to the discussion.
And look how it’s turned out. Ben Carson is a great man, but he’s NOT Presidential material.....who would be in his Cabinet?? Who would he name as Attorney General?? Nice man....would e a terrible President, but a good Surgeon General maybe.
That is some kind of fabulous home page that you’ve built!
Too Wonky and in support of Walker. Dismisses Michelle Bachmann’s run in 2012. So obviously it was one of the people who was against her and went after her in 2011-2012. I think the author has no clue what he is saying. Walker should have already announced. Right now Cruz is taking away voters. A Cruz/Rubio ticket, as long as Rubio begins to agree with Cruz, on Immigration would seal the deal. I say Cruz eventually pulls ahead of Walker.
“If Bush gets the nomination, I am convinced we lose. Rubio is too milquetoast, and Paul has far too much baggage.”
Why would Rubio run? He is young and has plenty of time. He could run for reelection for a Senate seat he would likely win and continue to establish himself as a national figure and leader when McCain, Hatch, McConnell and the rest of the old Senate Republicans fade away. As of today he has some national recognition but no strong national constituency. Like Obama, as a first term Senator he has zero accomplishments of significance and his singular qualification is his “race”. If Rubio were not “hispanic” he would be just one of many freshmen Senators.
Four more years in the Senate will give him time to record some legislative accomplishments and thereby build leadership credentials. He can build a national constituency by traveling the country speaking on issues and being a frequent guest on the Sunday talk show circuit. Even if the Republican win the White House without him in 2016, he is young enough to play in 2020, 2024, 2028, 2032, 2036.
On the other hand should he fail to get the POTUS nomination in 2016, he loses the Senate seat which today provides his political power base and his national speaking platform. Abandoning his Senate seat and failing to achieve the presidential nomination effectively puts him in the periphery of the national stage. Being ignored by the mainstream media and occasional appearances on Fox News for the next four or 8 years will not establish his credibility for POTUS help him build a national constituency. Without an elective office, his is not building his leadership credentials. Failing to achieve the nomination in 2016 essentially puts him in the position of having fight a tough political campaign in Florida to succeed Governor Scott or take Bill Nelson’s Senate seat in 2 years if he is to remain relevant. Neither is a shoe in and he still has to spend some time in office and perform.
Rubio, at this point in the race, appears to be less likely to go the distance than Walker, Bush, and Cruz. Carson and Huckabee seem poised to enter the race. Santorum and even Herman Cain may join the race. Carson, Huckabee, Cain, and Santorum will serve the purpose of fragmenting the GOP conservative base primary vote even more than Walker, Cruz, and Rubio will do by themselves. A fragmented conservative vote makes a Bush victory more likely, particularly if no other moderates enter the campaign.
Given the above, why is Rubio running? Could it be the party establishment wanted him in the race to take votes from Cruz and Walker? Is he being positioned as the alternative hispanic to Cruz? Has a back room deal been made where he is assured the VP nomination once Jeb gets the nomination assuming the conservative base fragments during the primary season and the party establishment prevails?
If so, Rubio must be calculating that if the Jeb/Rubio ticket is defeated by Hillary he will automatically be the lead Republican for the 2020 election. If that is his assumption he might want to consider subsequent political careers of the following recent GOP VP nominee losers — Dan Quayle in 1992, Jack Kemp in 1996, Sarah Palin in 2008, and Paul Ryan in 2012.
One other consideration. If the GOP establishment believes that with Cruz, Rubio, and the latino wannabe Bush in the race they have leapfrogged the Democrats in becoming the hispanic party they might want to reconsider. Cruz and Rubio, as Cubans, have no natural affiliation with Mexicans and Central Americans. Plus, the Democrats have Julian Castro, a real Mexican American “success” story sitting quietly on the bench. Unlike Cruz and Rubio Castro has real executive governing experience as mayor of San Antonio and is currently getting his federal government credentials serving in Obama’s cabinet. Hillary is poised to walk to the nomination with no real opposition so she won’t be obligated to give the VP nomination to the runner up. Should Cruz or Rubio win the Republican nomination, Julian Castro makes the perfect stealth VP candidate.
Castro, a young, fresh, high energy Mexican American is positioned to bring out the large Mexican American vote, while attracting the young white voters who helped Obama win. Remember, registered Mexican American voters significantly outnumber Cuban American voters, even before the potential of widespread voter fraud by illegals. Castro as the Dem VP nominee will more than offset any hispanic the Cuban heritage of Cruz or Rubio brings to the table. The press will pound home the message of “history and destiny” for a Clinton/Castro ticket. The Clinton/Castro ticket easily defeats a Bush/Rubio ticket.
“It really does’t matter.
Walker lost the trust of the BASE when he FLIP-FLOPED his position.
Both Walker and Rubio are a waste of time! “
My FRiend, I’m not trying to be annoying or anything here, but your ideologically rigid position is not how elections are won.
It’s more about what he says in the nomination process and in the run-up to the presidential that counts. You can say he lost the trust of “THE BASE” all you want, but it’s simply not true. He lost your trust because of a stupid thing he said once.
That’s not necessarily his position, and claiming the sky will fall given his victory is both facile and paranoid.
Victory is our goal, for the best candidate. (NOT RUBIO, NOT BUSH, NOT GRAHAM)
I had been thinking that Cruz was the better of the four guys: Walker, Rubio, Paul and of course Cruz. SO I had been thinking if Rubio and Rand run then they have to vacate the senate seat. Well they are running and so they lose seats that were valuable on may issues. So while they have baggage not worthy of being president, they lose the primary and they have nowhere to go. So I had hoped they wouldn’t run and stay in the Senate. Walker can go back to being Governor so it is no issue for him.
Interesting analysis but what about this?
“....In modern elections, a running mate is often selected in order to appeal to a different set of voters. A Habitation Clause issue arose during the 2000 presidential election contested by George W. Bush (running-mate Dick Cheney) and Al Gore (running-mate Joe Lieberman), because it was alleged that Bush and Cheney were both inhabitants of Texas and that the Texas electors therefore violated the Twelfth Amendment in casting their ballots for both. Bush’s residency was unquestioned, as he was Governor of Texas at the time. Cheney and his wife had moved to Dallas five years earlier when he assumed the role of chief executive at Halliburton. Cheney grew up in Wyoming and had represented it in Congress. A few months before the election, he switched his voter registration and driver’s license to Wyoming and put his home in Dallas up for sale. Three Texas voters challenged the election in a federal court in Dallas and then appealed the decision to the United States Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit, where it was dismissed...”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelfth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution
Bush and Rubio can’t run on the same ticket because they are both from the same state (FL).
Salient point - many "conservatives" can't seem to wait for things to fall apart so they get renewed whining rights...
I have a world of admiration for Dr. Carson. He has been working with others in medicine to craft a solution/alternative to 0bamacare. I think he’ make a fine choice for Health and Human Services Secretary or healthcare policy professional.
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