I look primarily at the Electoral College when weighing these kinds of questions. Since 1992, the most number of electoral votes won by a Republican was 284 by Bush in 2004. And that was against a pretty dumbass/boring candidate in the middle of a highly-supported War on Terror.
Since 1992, the electorate has gotten 10% less white, and Democrat candidates are winning between between 70-80% of the non-white vote. This year, the white vote will be less than 70% of the population. The math is getting tougher for Republican candidates. The Democrat starts out with basically about 240 electoral votes, which means that of the 9 or 10 swing states, the hildebeast will need one or two swing states to win.
If Walker is the nominee, I’d bet good money that the unions will make it their mission in life to deliver Ohio and the other midwestern states to her. And Bush is a non-starter - a LOSER of the highest order. The Democrats want Bush so badly because they know he can’t and won’t win. Watch as voters in open primary states come into the GOP’s primary process and push him hard. He’s a damn patsy.
Something has to change. A mushy middle moderate candidate isn’t cutting it; voters will see a liberal on one side and and liberal-imitator, and they’ll go for the true thing every time. We need someone who can drive conservative turnout.. it’s our best hope. We can’t rely on the idea of squeaking past 270 electoral votes; we need someone who can shock the nation with conservative turnout.
I’ve been encouraging FReepers to contact their State Reps. and State Senators and try to get bills passed in Blue and Purple states that would award the EVs by Congressional Districts; rather than the winner-take-all system. That is Constitutionally doable. What say ye?
Walker has proven he can win in a blue state against that sort of opposition. No other potential candidate has been so tested.
“If Walker is the nominee, I’d bet good money that the unions will make it their mission in life to deliver Ohio and the other midwestern states to her.”
Which is a strong argument for EC reform in Ohio. Electoral Votes should be apportioned by the vote in each congressional district; plus the two senatorial equivalents cast for the the winner of the popular vote in the state. That would go a long way to restoring the validity of the vote, not just in Ohio, but across the nation.
It’s time to dump the ‘winner take all’ model...