Did you know that Ted Cruz received 41% of the Hispanic vote in 2012?
I have not seen the 41% number before.
Cruz’s own polling says 40%.
The Rice University Political Science Department studied all Texas exit polls and estimated 36%.
“Latino Decisions,” a Texas-based organization that specializes on national and state Hispanic voting, says that Cruz got 35% - but the poll was taken Election Eve.
Here’s the link:
http://www.latinovote2012.com/app/#all-tx-all
The national Hispanic vote is the most important number, not the Texas Hispanic vote.
Only George W. Bush (2004) and Ronald Reagan (1984) received 40% of the Hispanic vote nationally.
No other GOP candidate has reached 40% - ever.
In 2004, 77% of voters were white.
In 2004, Bush got 58% of the white vote, and Bush won the popular vote by just over 2%.
In 2012, only 72% of voters were white, and, because of massive LEGAL immigration, that number will continue to go down.
I stand by my prediction - no Republican nominee can win in 2016 unless he gets 62% of the white vote, and that will be very, very hard to do.