Posted on 03/27/2015 7:19:49 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
This might surprise you, but it appears that key GOP activists and influential party members do not see Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) as having much of a shot at becoming the partys 2016 nominee. Now, anyone looking at the early state polls at this stage of the race might say the same thing. Cruz is not polling competitively in Iowa as of today, and hes certainly not over-performing in New Hampshire. But these insiders who responded to a Politico Caucus survey dont think Cruz can win either primary state. Whats more, they do not believe he can prevail against Hillary Clinton if he were to miraculously win the nomination.
The quotes provide to Politico via unnamed but reportedly influential figures within the party are illuminating, and they reflect a conventional wisdom about Cruz that appears accurate: He is a deeply polarizing figure, even among Republicans.
The shutdown made him infamous to most and loved by a vocal few, said a New Hampshire Republican.
His supporters see his fight as a badge of honor, said an Iowa Republican. Undecided caucus-goers will likely see his shutdown strategy as a major blunder.
His fighter mentality will play well with conservative activists and those who listen to talk radio, said an Iowa Republican, but its not like he has scored any real accomplishment on rolling back the Affordable Care Act.Ted Cruz has a legislative record that has no positive accomplishments, said another. He will be in a field with many people that can point to positive accomplishments, either as governors or senators.
He is the reason Democrats can call Republicans the Party of No, said a third Republican.
Sometimes, the conventional wisdom isnt wrong, and Cruzs approach to legislating since he took a seat in the Senate 26 months ago has been confrontational, self-aggrandizing, and alienating to adversaries and allies alike. Just because Cruz is a polarizing figure who fails to appeal to Republicans outside the most deeply conservative elements of the GOP coalition, however, does not mean that this talented orator and capable operator cannot outperform expectations.
In the commentary community, the race for the GOP nomination in 2016 has increasingly come to be characterized by lanes; a moderate lane, a tea party lane, an evangelical lane, a libertarian lane, et cetera. Rarely do these lanes merge. At least, not until the early state primaries are out of the way. For The Washington Posts Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake, Cruz is better positioned than anyone in the field of Republican candidates to dominate multiple lanes.
So, Cruz is, without question, the dominant figure in the Tea Party lane. What that means particularly in the early stages of the primary process in places like Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina is that he will likely be able to win, place or show repeatedly, wracking up enough strong-ish performances to keep going even as the Establishment lane and the Social Conservative lane begin to thin out. (Cruz’s ability to raise money, which remains a question, is less important for him than it is for other candidates especially those in the Establishment lane. His people are going to be for him no matter how much or little communicating he does with them.)
And, according to The New York Times, Cruzs strategy is to stay in his tea party lane, so to speak, while building inroads with the social conservative community. He reckons that this is the cycle that the Republican Partys moderate wing, crowded as it is with capable 2016 prospects, will fail to unite behind one candidate in time to muscle the more conservative Republican out of the race.
Mr. Cruzs early entry into the race, according to people briefed on his strategy, is a deliberate effort to recapture the attention of his partys right wing as he seeks to build a coalition of Tea Party conservatives and evangelical Christians to try to cut through a crowded field of Republican contenders.
Does Cruz have the ability to prove all those voices who doubt his staying power wrong? That remains to be seen. The junior Texas senator has his own crowded field of conservative and evangelical candidates to best before he can make the case to the GOP electorate to take a chance on a firebrand in 2016. If the commentary class is right and the GOP insiders are wrong, however, Cruz could be in this race well into the spring of next year, if not longer.
The only way we can get a Dem out of the WH is to stick together and vote for whoever gets the nod. True. I agree.
On what do you base this claim?
Really?
ROMNEY failed because of ONE thing. He is a Mormon.
His fighter mentality will play well with conservative activists and those who listen to talk radio, said an Iowa Republican, but its not like he has scored any real accomplishment on rolling back the Affordable Care Act.
Gee, maybe because there were too many Whiskey Deltas and not enough serious conservatives in the Senate? I was amazed and proud of his floor speech - it was right on target, delivered with seriousness, humor and understated passion. Go Ted Cruz!
“He is the reason Democrats can call Republicans the Party of No, said a third Republican.”
That is a prefect representation of why Republicans lose and are ineffective.
They let the Democrats set the agenda and they jump to the Democrat bark.
They also don’t understand that the shutdown and the images of the national parks closed and WWII Vets locked out of their memorials did more to bring in the GOP wave in 2014 than anything.
They may be right. I am afraid that someone of his caliber, character, beliefs and courage cannot be elected President in 2016.
> The GOP wants another Romney type ... like Jeb Bush.
How did that work out for them last time?
Idiots.
Well of course they do. They’re RINOs; members of the Uni-traitor-party. They don’t want a GOP candidate to win because they’re playing for the other team.
If he isn’t the nominee, the Party is done.
Wow an AF EM who is a know it all.
Governors are people who lead and do things....Senators are people who vote on things that other people do.
Bill Clinton. Jimmy Carter. Franklin Roosevelt. Woodrow Wilson.
That a RETIRED AF EM and FAA Controller.
Reagan sure fired the air traffic controllers. Hear Cruz likes that.
We don’t need your negative BS. I also like Walker, but Ted is a better candidate.
If Jeb Bush gets the nomination will you be voting for him?
“The quotes provide to Politico via unnamed but reportedly influential figures.....”
Sure, that looks credible.
If this job were easy, everybody would be doing it.
Cruz is going to pull it off....he will win.
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