Agreed — SA first and then Israel. I suspect that the Saudis have procured their own bomb from Pakistan and may get help from Israel.
“I suspect that the Saudis have procured their own bomb from Pakistan”
The Independent (UK) published this today:
“Western intelligence agencies believe that the Saudi monarchy paid for up to 60% of Pakistan’s nuclear programme in return for the ability to buy warheads for itself at short notice, the Guardian newspaper reported in 2010.” http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-says-it-wont-rule-out-building-nuclear-weapons-10139229.html
And from the Wall Street Journal on 11 March:
“Fears of Mideast arms race heighten as Riyadh secures nuclear deal with South Korea” http://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-nuclear-deal-raises-stakes-for-iran-talks-1426117583
That Article reports:
“In recent years, Saudi Arabia has also signed nuclear cooperation agreements with China, France and Argentina. Riyadh and Buenos Aires formed a joint-venture company, called Invania, specifically focused on developing nuclear power. “
I guess South Korea, facing a nuclear North Korea and an unreliable American protector, are covering their butts for the future with a nuclear weapons program as well. And Saudi Arabia is diversifying its sources to reduce their risk, and building a program totally under their control.
“In 2010, Saudi Arabia established the King Abdullah City for Atomic and Renewable Energy, commonly known as K.A. Care. K.A. Care, a government agency, says on its website that it aims to generate 17.6 gigawatts of electricity using nuclear power by 2032, through up to 16 new reactors.”
Like the AQ Khan nuclear proliferation effort, different components (like enrichment) might be outsourced to other locations for a while, until a complete program can be established.