True, if you look at last cycle, the polling leaders were at different times Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt (TWO DIFF TIMES), and eventually Mitt Romney. In other words, a minimum of six lead changes - and that’s from just the Ames straw poll thru the first caucus. From now, there may be ten or fifteen lead changes.
The race hasn’t even started. And Walker will prove wrong on ethanol and on amnesty.
And if I recall correctly even Donald Trump was leading in the polls a time or two as well. And don't forget that polls in Iowa in February and March of 2011 were showing Huckabee in the lead.
It's a long campaign season and anything can happen. Walker is leading now but he'd better not get too comfortable or he's going to find himself overtaken. And you can't forget the advantage Bush will have in terms of money and establishment support.
I think you could argue that given the last few elections and the number of candidates that got to—and lost—the number one spot, there is an increased appetite for stability.
Two factors are contributing to this:
1. The large number of candidates and their competing conservative positions split the vote and we wound up with the LEAST conservative—Romney and McCain, and we don’t want that to happen again.
2. The media and the big money Chamber of Commerce types have “pre-selected” Jeb Bush for us and that infuriates us, as he is more of a liberal than Romney and McCain—and we’ll stand by a conservative stalwart EARLY in direct opposition to Bush being thrust upon us.
Due to this, we might see Walker’s bandwagon as the one to jump on to—and stay on. Even for the next year and a half.