That, too. But the obvious can be deceptive.
In 1968, the Red Army assumed it was going to invade Yugoslavia, because Tito had been a real jerk to Russia. And they were downright puzzled when the order came through to invade Czechoslovakia, Russia’s friendly, close ally.
And no one in US Intel knew about it until days after the event. Intel paid the price of pissing off the collectors, who suddenly became deaf.