Mike Huckabee thinks he has Iowa evangelicals locked down. He’s wrong. [CRUZ]

national journal ^ | Tim Alberta

[SoConPubbie]

Just as Ted Cruz was electrifying Iowa's right-wing activists in Des Moines with a call for America's rebirth, Mike Huckabee's team was erecting a display of free books in the hall outside.

Cruz's time was running short. A few more speakers and then Huckabee, another crowd favorite, would be up. So the Texan ended his fiery speech with a request: Conservatives who wanted to join his "grassroots army" should text "Constitution" to a special phone number. It was a smart stunt. The Freedom Summit auditorium sparkled with LED screens, giving Cruz, his adviser brags, more than 1,000 Iowa phone numbers for less than 30 seconds of work.

Huckabee wanted to make those connections, too. For more than 90 minutes, his team circled the book display with clipboards and pens, asking for activists' contact information. Some attendees obliged; many others hurried by. The clipboards just couldn't keep pace.

This is what Huckabee is up against. The former Arkansas governor who came from nowhere to win Iowa's 2008 Republican caucuses remains immensely popular in the state. He connects on personal and spiritual levels in evangelical-heavy Iowa, and social conservatives in this state have adopted him as one of their own. Huckabee's team is counting on that loyalty as he prepares to launch a second presidential campaign.

But things have changed since Huckabee's last campaign here. Not only have the operational tactics evolved—as demonstrated by Cruz's efficient data-collection strategy—but the race to win religious voters has also become crowded. Whereas Huckabee in 2008 faced little competition in wooing socially conservative caucus-goers, this time around, more than a half dozen viable candidates will target that critical subset of the Iowa electorate.

This means trouble for Huckabee. The last time he won an election was 2002, before Facebook, before Twitter. Before Instagram, Snapchat, and iPhones. The last time he won the caucuses, in 2008, the tea-party movement did not exist. He'll now face a more conservative field, one that's younger, tech-savvy, and already aggressively reaching for his core supporters. And while Huckabee can still sell books, it's not clear that he can still sell himself.

“Huckabee’s 2008 supporters are not locked up, and it’s not because they’re all staying with Santorum,” says Greg Baker, a Santorum 2012 supporter who is the political director at the Iowa Family Leader.

"We need some new, young blood in the party," says Patricia Hatfield, standing outside Books-A-Million in Ames, where Huckabee has just signed copies of his new manifesto, God, Guns, Grits and Gravy.

Hatfield and her husband, Jerry, are precisely the kind of people Huckabee can't afford to lose. They are self-identified evangelicals who supported Huckabee in 2008, and, when he decided not to run in 2012, they helped former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania win the Iowa caucuses. The Hatfields are active in state politics, and they adore Huckabee personally. But they are ready for something new. "Eight years," Jerry Hatfield says, remembering Huckabee's 2008 campaign, "is a long time."

This sentiment echoes resoundingly among caucus-goers here. Recent interviews with more than a dozen former Huckabee supporters yielded only a single ironclad commitment to back him again in 2016. Explanations were straightforward: The country is changing, the party is changing, and campaigns are changing. 2016, they say, will look nothing like 2008. The ground has shifted beneath Huckabee's feet.

But Huckabee's team doesn't buy it. For months, staffers have laid the groundwork for another campaign—and have done so under the pretense that things haven't changed in Iowa. That Huckabee still connects distinctively with social conservatives. That his message still resonates uniquely with Republican voters. And that no other candidate will compete with him for the affections of the evangelical base. "When it comes to rallying social conservatives, Ted Cruz doesn't hold a candle to Mike Huckabee," the former governor's spokeswoman, Alice Stewart, told National Journal late last year.

That theory is about to be tested. Cruz leads a large pack of conservative White House contenders aiming their campaign operations straight at evangelicals, the heart of the Iowa Republican electorate. In recent presidential cycles, they have coalesced behind one candidate. In 2012, that was Santorum, adopted by Huckabee's 2008 supporters as the antiestablishment vessel (after flings with Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann). This time around, Iowa faces an unprecedented situation: two former winners competing in the first-in-the-nation caucuses.

But, here again, Huckabee's team is dismissive. One senior Huckabee adviser, describing the conversations within his camp, puts it thusly: "Santorum rented Iowa. Huckabee owns it."

In this case, Team Huckabee's hubris is justifiable. Santorum still has a presence throughout the state, thanks to his Patriot Voices super PAC and affiliated nonprofit. But many of his top Iowa officials from 2012 have moved on. One of them, speaking on condition of anonymity because of their personal friendship, says Santorum "was just the last man standing" against Mitt Romney in 2012. If loyalty is an issue for Huckabee heading into his second run, Iowa Republicans say, it's even more problematic for Santorum.

"Huckabee's 2008 supporters are not locked up, and it's not because they're all staying with Santorum," says Greg Baker, a Santorum 2012 supporter who is the political director at the Iowa Family Leader.

Indeed, Santorum should be the least of Team Huckabee's concerns this time around. A new cast of characters, many of them fresh-faced and allied with the grassroots, are working hard to make inroads with evangelicals.

Certainly, there's Cruz, who has been reaching out to Christian leaders for advice on hiring a state director to run his Iowa operation. But the list also includes Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who recently hired top Iowa strategist David Polyansky, the man credited with orchestrating Huckabee's 2008 caucus triumph; Texas Gov. Rick Perry, whose top Iowa adviser, Bob Haus, is highly respected in social-conservative circles; Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, who missed the Freedom Summit because he was hosting a day of prayer in his home state; and neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who recently tapped Ryan Rhodes, chairman of the Iowa Tea Party and a well-connected evangelical, to run his Iowa operation.

"It's a good problem to have for Christian conservatives," says Jamie Johnson, a leading evangelical organizer and member of the Iowa GOP's state Central Committee.

Steve Scheffler, president of the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition and the state's GOP national committeeman, says the race to become the consensus evangelical favorite is "wide open." But he warns that while several candidates are already connecting with religious voters, he's waiting to see who actually puts together a functional campaign. "You might have the right message and energy, but you have to have an organization to turn people out. And that's not easy."

It may be premature to appraise campaign organizations, but there is a pervasive sense on the ground that Carson isn't built to last. The soft-spoken outsider has generated large crowds, and there is plenty of talk about how his campaign presence spans all of Iowa's 99 counties. But Carson's support, one unaffiliated conservative leader emphasizes, is "a mile wide and an inch deep." In fact, two neutral Republican officials, in separate interviews, noted that one of Carson's county chairs is elderly, infirm, and rarely leaves the house.

So, who has both the conservative bona fides and the organizational muscle needed to win Iowa? Influential Republicans here suspect the field will boil down to Walker and Cruz.

The son of a Baptist minister, Walker spent a chunk of his childhood in rural Iowa before moving to neighboring Wisconsin. He often spoke from his father's pulpit on Sunday mornings, and he took his faith so seriously that friends expected him to become a minister. This religious and cultural authenticity has helped Walker woo voters in Wisconsin, and his campaign hopes it will help him gain a foothold in Iowa. He opened his Freedom Summit speech by advocating the power of prayer—a message that was appreciated by top evangelical leaders, including some influential church pastors, in attendance.

Cruz, on the other hand, has made no top-level hires in Iowa. But he has spent significant time in the state over the past two years. So has his father, Pastor Rafael Cruz, who draws crowds that could rival any other candidate's.

[alstewartfan]

I wasn’t trying to educate you. lol I was agreeing with you! Bob

[SoConPubbie]

I know a lot of FReepers are “watching” Walker like he is the enemy because they think he is a closet Amnesty supporter. Not so.

His words and actions speak otherwise:

YouTube Link: Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, in his own words, endorses a path to citizenship for Illegal Aliens and an Open-Border Policy in July of last year.

[txhurl]

Many are watching Walker since he pleaded the other day for Romney’s endorsement voter base and donor rolls.

As true as it was in the 70s: ‘@$$, grass or gas, nobody rides for free.’ Romney isn’t handing all that over without Walker committing to at least 2/3 of Romney’s goals and agenda.

[magglepuss]

Thanks for that link. I have seen a lot of posts on free republic about him being pro amnesty. But, he actually says in this video

“You hear a lot of people talk about border security, a fence and I don’t know if we need any of that”. WOW.

I am very suspect of anyone trying to push him for a candidate.

[SoConPubbie]

You know Din Maker, what really surprises me is that someone, like you, who has worked so hard and tirelessly for the Tea-Party cause, could throw the ultimate Tea-Party POTUS candidate like Ted Cruz overboard for someone who is not a Tea-Party candidate like Walker.

And for proof of my premise about Walker, I submit the following in Scott Walker's own words:

Scott Walker to tea partiers: Let’s focus on taking out Democrats, not our fellow Republicans

Scott Walker: Gay Marriage Fight Is 'Over In Wisconsin'

Walker Says Legislature Shouldn't Focus On Right-To-Work Bill Next Session

YouTube Link: Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, in his own words, endorses a path to citizenship for Illegal Aliens and an Open-Border Policy in July of last year.


These are not the words or actions of someone that anyone should consider a Tea-Party candidate, partially conservative, yes, Tea-Party, NO

CRUZ or LOSE!

[Din Maker]

THIS IS ALL A MOOT POINT!!! Ted Cruz won’t be running. I know because a FReeper said the other day that , like Rubio, he’s not eligible to run because he was born in Canada. So, hey; I guess that settles it. FReeper dude needs to get that information to Ted so he won’t waste his time and energy.

[sarge83]

I bet the Huckster, Rove and Jeb are all just best of friends and business associates. Of course Jeb will keep his distance but that won’t stop a slimy little turd like Rove from helping his good friend the Huskster out with just enough money to sway things Jeb’s way when needed. Rove is the serpent headed James Carvell of the Republican party.

[SoConPubbie]

THIS IS ALL A MOOT POINT!!! Ted Cruz won’t be running. I know because a FReeper said the other day that , like Rubio, he’s not eligible to run because he was born in Canada. So, hey; I guess that settles it. FReeper dude needs to get that information to Ted so he won’t waste his time and energy.

So, a Freeper's opinion trumps constitutionality?

WOW!

I did not know that once we joined FreeRepublic, we gained so much power!

Please provide the relevant sections of the U.S. Constitution that clearly and unambiguously define "Natural Born" as requiring two U.S. Citizens at birth.

Lacking that, Please provide the relevant sections of U.S. Federal Law that clearly and unambiguously define "Natural Born" as requiring two U.S. Citizens at birth.

Lacking that, Please provide the relevant rulings of the U.S. Supreme Court that clearly and unambiguously define "Natural Born" as requiring two U.S. Citizens at birth.

You won't because you can't because they don't exist anywhere except in your mind and in sources that are not legal or constitutional in nature.


Ted Cruz IS constitutionally eligible to be POTUS, no matter what any other Freeper may tell you.

If they want to make him ineligible, they will either have to get a case before SCOTUS to have "Natural Born" constitutionally defined as requiring 2 US Citizen parents at birth and the child cannot be born outside of the US, or get a Law passed by Congress and signed by the President, or get an Amendment to the Constitution passed that does the same.

I ask you, however, how do you expect SCOTUS or congress to either rule in favor of the 2-parent definition or congress to pass a law in favor of the 2-parent definition if it will invalidate the Presidency of Obama???

[Old Retired Army Guy]

You miss the point. I am not trying to discredit Cruz. He is a great Conservative voice. I just don’t think he is ready to be President. We need someone who has been through the Democrat fires. Walker has been there. We need to rally behind him or we will get Bush.

[SoConPubbie]

You miss the point. I am not trying to discredit Cruz. He is a great Conservative voice. I just don’t think he is ready to be President. We need someone who has been through the Democrat fires. Walker has been there. We need to rally behind him or we will get Bush.

I doubt your honesty on this point.

Walker has not gone through half the grief that Ted Cruz has gone through from the Democrats, the Media, and his own Party. Not even close.

You simply don't have a point.

[Din Maker]

I never said I was throwing Ted Cruz overboard. I hold down a full-time job and I gave 10 hrs. a week to his Senate Campaign here in Texas. I know that he does not have a paper trail of accomplishments under his belt and some pundits are already saying he makes a good speech, but, what has he accomplished. So, there, Walker has the advantage. And, should Ted fade early, Walker is the ONLY other Pubbie I would consider.

[Old Retired Army Guy]

You question my honesty??? Who the hell are you? I spent 30+ years in the Army pledging to “Duty, Honor and Country” and the promise that “I will Not Lie, Cheat or Steal or Tolerate it in Others”. Go back to your basement and eat some chitos unless you have some credentials that are beyond that.

[Din Maker]

LOL...... Guess I need to make sure I use the sarc. tag from now on. Sorry you wasted all that time and effort on replying to a Post that was sarcasm. Surprised that got by you SoConPubbie. But, you do seem awfully “quick on the trigger” today. You need to take you a hot shower, take you a nap and try to quit getting so upset so easily. You’re going to drive yourself to an early grave.

[SoConPubbie]

You question my honesty??? Who the hell are you? I spent 30+ years in the Army pledging to “Duty, Honor and Country” and the promise that “I will Not Lie, Cheat or Steal or Tolerate it in Others”. Go back to your basement and eat some chitos unless you have some credentials that are beyond that.

Sorry, Army service or not, but your actions where Ted Cruz are concerned really lead to the conclusion that you aren't the most honest person where he is concerned.

McCain is supposedly a hero and has plenty of service as well, but as for me, I consider him a traitor and a very dishonest person.

[Lady Heron]

Christi, Romney or Jeb only with a "Bible"

No thanks.

[COBOL2Java]

About the only voting block Huckaboob has locked down is the anti-Beyonce’ voters.

And the ones who can't wait for President Huckabee [sic] to issue them spiffy uniforms so they can go knocking door-to-door inquiring about what you do in your bedroom.

[COBOL2Java]

THIS IS ALL A MOOT POINT!!! Ted Cruz won’t be running. I know because a FReeper said the other day that , like Rubio, he’s not eligible to run because he was born in Canada. So, hey; I guess that settles it. FReeper dude needs to get that information to Ted so he won’t waste his time and energy.

LOL. I see what you did there...

[octex]

The fact that Walker is the son of a Preacher won’t hurt him in Iowa either.
************************
Ted Cruz’ dad is also a preacher.

[CodeToad]

Going forward, we will be only voting for known conservatives. Simply having an (R) next to their name will not solicit our vote. The eGOP can be thanked for that.

[SoConPubbie]

Sorry for the delay!

You’ve been added to the Ted Cruz Ping List!