“BTW, are you of the same conclusion I am that WV will drop to just 2 House seats after 2023 ?”
The U.S. population is on pace to increase by around 7.75% during this decade, so the average CD will have a population of around 765,000 after the 2020 Census. WV has actually decreased in population since the 2010 Census, but even if it recovers somewhat and breaks even, it would be entitled to 2.42 congressional districts. While the method for allocating congressional districts is more complicated than my crude division exercise, it is certain that WV will not be able to keep its current three CDs unless it increases its population by at least 2% during the decade, and it would not be assured of keeping three CDs unless its population increases by over 3%.
Given that WV’s population *decreased* by 0.1% during the first 51 months of the 120-month Census period, WV’s population would need to increase at a pace of 3.75% a decade for the next 69 months in order to have a small chance of keeping its current number of CDs.
So, barring an unprecedented change in America’s migratory patterns, WV will be down to two CDs after the 2020 Census. One of the three GOP congressmen will lose the game of musical chairs, and it is likely that one or more of them will decide to run statewide before that happens, either for Manchin’s Senate seat in 2018 or in the GOP primary for Capito’s Senate seat in 2020 (or, if the Dems hold the governorship in 2016, for governor in 2020).
It’s a shame that just as the state has recovered from over 8 decades of Democrat mismanagement and statism that it will be losing a seat that will likely be Republican. Of course, if we stopped counting the illegal population nationally and redistricted in that regard, it would probably be able to hang on to that 3rd seat.