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To: expat_panama

No. As an experienced investor, I predict something will happen.

Now if I knew what was about to happen, then I’d be rich....


3 posted on 01/25/2015 10:16:54 AM PST by proxy_user
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To: proxy_user
....something will happen.

We can't count on that merely because nothing happened last week.  [From 12 Cognitive Biases That Endanger Investors Minyanville.com]

Gambler's Fallacy

One of the most famous disclaimers in finance is that past performance is no guarantee of future results. This bias is often referred to as a "glitch" in our thinking in that it extrapolates what happened in the past to construct an idea of what will happen the future. How many of you have played roulette at a casino under the premise that a string of red increases the likelihood of a black outcome? That's flawed thinking; the odds of red (or black, for that matter) or 48% on each independent spin.


6 posted on 01/25/2015 10:26:54 AM PST by expat_panama
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