Iran has been working on developing nuclear weapons since the Bush years. That was over six years ago. They were always just a couple of years from actually having “a” nuclear weapon. I always though a couple of years was the same as 2 years. Therefore, they have had time to develop at least 3 nuclear weapons.
If they did have “a” nuclear weapon, I doubt that they would have a press conference along with a ribbon cutting for the U.N. They would most likely keep it a secret. They would want more than one, so that they could spread them around to different places, in order to keep that one nuclear weapon from being destroyed. They also would want a reliable delivery system that could allow them to target New York or Washington, D.C., or at the very least, London or Brussels.
It is very likely that Iran has already 2 or 3 nuclear weapons, fully functional and waiting to be deployed. They were last seen working on a long-range ballistic missile. Once they get a big enough missile, they can put it down pretty much anywhere in the world.
Does anyone believe that Iran would make “a” nuclear weapon, and then just fling it into the air and hope it lands on Tel Aviv? That would be ridiculous. They would make five or six, and make it possible to hit Tel Aviv and then have a second-strike capability, or a backup just in case the first one didn’t do the job, so to speak.
Big Bump. Been saying for years. Iran will get the bomb, sooner or later. The will likely use the bomb when they actually have more than one. These Persians are radical but they are indeed clever. The last bomb will be to use as a looming threat against retaliation.
IMO, it is in that time of a nuclear detonation that the Western world will have the moral high ground to crush the Iranian threat with both barrels. The initiative of the retaliation will again be left to the United States. And, there is the rub. Obama, IMO, will hem-haw, stall and call for "peaceful negotiations". That is his role in all this. He is the enabler.
Iran has had a few setbacks in moving forward including the sabotage of its centrifuge systems and some unexplained explosions at nuclear development facilities. Despite those they are only delays in their ultimate realization of nuclear weapons.