Posted on 01/23/2015 6:16:54 PM PST by iowamark
This weekend’s Iowa Freedom Summit is the first multi-candidate event of the 2016 Iowa Caucus cycle. Several presidential hopefuls will take the stage during the daylong forum. Each is given 20 minutes to address the crowd.
There is a lot at stake for those hoping to woo likely Iowa Caucusgoers. The candidates who receive the biggest boost on Saturday will likely be the ones who fire up the crowd of Iowa conservatives the most. A sold out crowd of 1,000 or so likely caucusgoers and 150 members of the media from all the country will attend the summit.
This event will largely focus on speechifying. Attendees will not just focus on what each candidate says. How they say it is equally important.
Here is a look at some potential obstacles for each likely presidential aspirant on Saturday as the take the stage at the Iowa Freedom Summit, an event organized by Congressman Steve King and Citizens United:
John Bolton
The former U.N. ambassador wants to make sure national security remains a key topic in the GOP presidential primary. Bolton is a hawk and leading critic of President Obama’s handling of the War on Terror.
His speech will likely focus heavily on foreign policy. Because of that, Bolton might be able to carve out a niche among the long slate of speakers. However, some Iowa conservatives are war weary and could disagree with Bolton’s views.
The former ambassador will need to show he can appeal to caucusgoers on issues beyond foreign policy if he hopes to gain any traction.
Ben Carson
Carson’s rejection of political correctness, mixed with an astounding intellect, amazing life story and calm demeanor has many Iowa conservatives excited about his candidacy. However, delivering fiery speeches is not Carson’s forte.
The two prominent speeches he delivered in Iowa last year ran between 45 minutes and an hour. Although they were well received, Carson does not electrify a crowd the way some of the other speakers are able to do.
Since there is a 20-minute time limit Saturday, Dr. Carson will need to find a way to deliver a concise, yet inspirational speech in order to continue his positive momentum in Iowa.
Chris Christie
This could be a difficult venue for the New Jersey governor. The national media on hand will likely focus on Christie’s speech more than anyone else’s. Yet, he might be the least popular candidate on the stage Saturday.
Christie has lost a lot of appeal with Iowa conservatives due to his over-the-top praise of President Obama just before the 2012 elections, Bridgegate and his more moderate stances. Christie’s poll numbers have plummeted. He has also been eclipsed by Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney in the discussions of the top “establishment” Republicans in the presidential race.
However, Chris Christie has an ability to connect with an audience that few others can match. His biggest obstacle on Saturday is appealing to Iowa conservatives who might find his potential candidate very unappealing. A negative reaction from the crowd will surely garner plenty of media attention.
Governor Christie can significantly help his presidential aspirations on Saturday if he finds common ground with a crowd that leans more conservative than he does. He could also severely damage those aspirations.
Ted Cruz
The Texas senator and conservative firebrand has shined more than once in similar settings in our First-in-the-Nation caucus state. Although Ted Cruz is disliked by some members of his own party because of his insistence on fighting, he has a grassroots following among Iowa conservatives largely for that same reason.
Cruz has spent extensive time in Iowa and many of Saturday’s attendees have heard his speeches before. Cruz will need to offer some fresh material and another fiery speech to emerge from this event still considered among the upper echelon of Iowa Caucus contenders.
Carly Fiorina
Most of those in attendance have never seen nor heard Carly Fiorina speak before. She is perhaps the least known among those who are believed to be seriously considering a run for president.
Fiorina’s one major speech in Iowa, delivered last September, was well received by the 125 members in attendance. However, the former Hewlett Packard CEO needs to show she can appeal to an audience that will likely be more conservative than that one.
Fiorina will also likely be judged against a more prominent female speaker on hand Saturday: former vice-presidential nominee Sarah Palin.
Mike Huckabee
The 2008 Iowa Caucus winner needs to show he can win over a wide swath of Republicans the way he did six years ago. Huckabee remains well liked and his strong social conservative views appeal to many Iowa Caucusgoers.
However, the field of conservative candidates is stronger and more crowded now than it was in 2008. Huckabee needs to come across as a full spectrum conservative. That will not be easy. The former Arkansas governor’s support of issues likely Common Core will turn off many of his former supporters.
Mike Huckabee needs to show that he can maintain his affable personality while also being a conservative warrior who will fight for the issues Iowa Caucusgoers hold dear. That is a difficult balance to maintain, especially in a short speech.
Rick Perry
The former Texas governor successfully redeemed himself from his disastrous 2012 campaign. Perry spent significant time in Iowa last year, travelling all over the state, helping Iowa Republican candidates and drawing rave reviews from attendees.
He is a completely different candidate than he was last cycle. The passionless, scripted speeches are gone. Perry stole the show at The Family Summit last August August with a fiery, red meat-laden dialogue. That came as a shock to many who watched him flounder in 2011-12.
Saturday, Rick Perry needs another performance like that one last August.
Rick Santorum
The 2012 Iowa Caucus winner has fallen back near the bottom of the pack in the polls. That’s a position he remained for most of 2011.
For Santorum to regain his momentum, he needs to significantly up his game. Iowa conservatives like Santorum, but he is not beloved the same way as Mike Huckabee. Santorum is also largely absent from the national spotlight.
The former Pennsylvania senator is adamantly pushing Republicans to expand their reach to blue-collar workers. His recent Iowa speeches push that mantra.
However, that group will not make up the core of the attendees on Saturday. Santorum needs to convince Iowans he remains the best full-spectrum conservative in the hunt. Fiery speeches are not Santorum’s forte, but he could definitely use one on Saturday.
Scott Walker
Most Iowans have never heard Scott Walker speak in person because the Wisconsin governor has spent little time here. However, Walker is admired by Iowa conservatives for his conservative governorship in our neighboring state. He is often mentioned among the top few candidates when Iowa Caucusgoers are asked whom they are considering for president.
Walker can make a big splash Saturday with a strong, substantive speech. He is not the most electric speaker, but Walker is right on most of the issues Iowa conservatives champion.
Scott Walker needs to show he has the ability to ignite the passion of a large crowd. Many are ready to embrace his bid, but a speech that does not stand out could find Walker quickly eclipsed by others in the field.
Speaker List:
Congressman Marsha Blackburn
Congressman Rod Blum
Ambassador John Bolton
Gov. Terry Branstad
Dr. Ben Carson
Gov. Chris Christie
Senator Ted Cruz
Senator Jim Demint
Congressman Jeff Duncan
Senator Joni Ernst
Carly Fiorina
Gov. Jim Gilmore
Speaker Newt Gingrich
Senator Charles Grassley
Gov. Mike Huckabee
Senator Mike Lee
NH State Rep. William O’Brien
Gov. Sarah Palin
Gov. Rick Perry
Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds
Senator Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
Gov. Scott Walker
Missing from the list are: Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, and Paul Ryan
Bush and Romney turned down invitations. Too conservative for them. Bobby Jindal is speaking at a Christian event in Baton Rouge. I am not sure if Paul Ryan was invited or not. He has said recently that he will not run for President.
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