I’m not claiming it did.
But many keep claim cheap US gasoline will be a boom for the economy, ignoring the loss of direct and indirect jobs and equipment orders that drop off with oil industry.
There will be some offsetting gains. But I think history shows the total economy has never jumped before in this situation. The reality is there is more going on than just gasoline prices. The drop in price is partially driven by slowing economies that have job impacts at the same time. Copper is also at a 5 year low. Lumber prices are down. It isn’t just oil.
Myself, I am having a great time filling up for $20 bucks.
But I see how the investing and banking class is now panicking. They have made TRILLIONS over the last 6 years from rising energy prices.
A free resource from the earth that God provided to us.
As some have pointed out here, energy was one of the few industries that has actually flourished since 2008. And contrary to Obama and the Media, I believe we have been in an actual Depression since 2008, whose worst effects have been masked by massive mounting debt and Food Stamps.
I don't know if there's ever been a credible economic study that filtered out all other factors. You also have to ask, compared to what?
There's no doubt that $140 oil was a drag on the economy, especially considering how much of that oil was imported. The domestic production boom has been doubly stimulative in that it has decreased the world price of oil and kept more $$$ at home. Win-win.
Some estimates put the effect on the economy at 2% additional GDP growth from jobs alone. As far as the favorable effect of lower costs and lower balance of payments, who knows?
One of the shortcomings of the "Science of Economics" is that it just speaks to that which can be reasonably measured. If economics can't (or, in some cases, won't) measure activity, we're left to our theoretical knowledge to make our best judgment. The quality of our theoretical framework will determine the quality of the judgment.
The effects upon the industry are comparatively easier to measure. Layoffs can be tracked. Payments to vendors and other components can be measured.
It's harder to measure the effect lower prices has on small business not directly affected. Lower business at restaurants across from facilities is probably offset by higher business at other restaurants.
Manufacturing has become much more competitive. Small businesses such as mine are making buying decisions for the next year based upon projected fuel costs.
Negative effects can be easily measured because they are localized. Positive effects are much more diffused and harder to recognize and measure.
It doesn't mean they don't exist, or that they are not substantial. There's no doubt it's incredibly disruptive.