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Illarionov: Islamic Spring in Western Europe
Portal Telewizja Republika | 2014 December 4 | Andrey Illarionov

Posted on 01/10/2015 9:18:52 PM PST by annalex

Illarionov: Islamic Spring in Western Europe

Andrey Illarionov - TV Republika Interview

Portal Telewizja Republika, Warsaw
December 4, 2014.

The interview is in English. I summarized a few points in the beginning. Starting with 15th minute I made a transcript. (A-x)

You Tube


The tension between Russia and the West is not a cold war nor Cold War 2. For one thing, in Ukraine it is a shooting war where people die. What to call it – I don't know yet.

I know the mind of Putin and his surroundings. They consider Ukraine a country that does not have a right to choose its future. They believe that Russia should decide what Ukraine goes. Notice that they never defined the boundaries of the Kremlin's sphere of influence. That is on purpose, because Putin will go as far as he is allowed to go.

USSR was very ideological. Today there is no ideological communist model. In his “Valday” (aka “Sochi”) speech Oct 24 Putin suggests that the existing geopolitical system should be changed. US need to recognize Russia's sphere of interest, just as Russia recognizes American sphere of interest. That is dissimilar to the USSR. This is rather similar to the Hitler's messages to Chamberlaine: that the rules be changed so that Western Europe is shared between GB and the 3rd Reich. It is also similar to Ribbentrop-Molotov pact, when Germany and the Soviet Union actually partitioned Eastern Europe between themselves.

The Soviet Union never threatened the West with its nuclear weapons directly. But today nuclear blackmail is becoming routine in Russian propaganda, while the American tanks are being withdrawn from Europe in 2013. Europe today is at its lowest point in its military capability. Another element of blackmail is the resumption of incursions into West Europe airspace. The desire is to intimidate Europe so that they stay away from helping Ukraine.


European countries and European nations should not be very much surprised if in the spring, let's say of the next year, 2015, there would be some kind of massive political movement of the kind, lets say, Islamic Spring but it will be not in Arab countries but in Western Europe, that could destabilize some European countries and would consume energy and attention of European leaders at the time when Mr. Putin would try to fulfill his imperial or neo-imperial project on the territory of the former USSR.

Q. Is it like ISIS right now?

No. ISIS is in the territory of the Middle East and they try to capture...

Q. But the focus of the Western leaders is on ISIS right now not on Ukraine.

The focus is somewhat divided, with a substantial shift toward ISIS in the Middle East. But let's say there will by some kind of movement and some kind of activities in the European countries themselves, it would be rather hard to pay enough attention to what is going on in the former Soviet Union

Q. You suggest that could be triggered by Russia?

I am just warning that if and when it will happen the western societies, European societies should not be much shocked and surprised. They are warned – right now, at the end of 2014.

Q. Do you find the Smolensk plane crash a part of this whole big plan that we are talking about right now, – or not?

What I could say about the Smolensk crash on April 10 2010. We have a number of questions. Even at that time in May 2010 I formulated at least seventeen big questions. I am not talking about many dozens of hundreds of technical questions. Seventeen big questions concerning this crash. For all these four and a half years after the crash we did not get answers on any of these questions. What we do know is that some part of the so called Official report from International Aviation Committee falsified , it was a very clear and open lie. We know that many statements of Russian officials at that time, April 2010, are open lies. We know that there appeared some strange people were easily identified as agents of special services that tried to provide some very falsified version of events. That's what we are clear [about]. We still don't know why the plane that crashed from apparently low altitude about 15 meters had been destroyed into s many little pieces and the debris had been scattered on a huge territory. We still don't understand why a plane that crashed from such, eh, not high altitude lead to death of all passengers. There is no other case with similar crashes when all passengers and all team [crew] were killed. Yes, there would be some killed but there would be many wounded and many people would survive in similar crashes. There is no case when a birch tree or any other tree would destroy a wing of the plane. There are many other questions. Nobody from the official authorities, from the Aviation committee, and from I see in the official report from the Polish authorities were able to provide reasonable answers to those questions and many other questions. I am still far from making any conclusions how that crash should be justified, that is how it should be explained. I try to be cautious in this regard. I'd like first to get reasonable answers for these questions. We don't have them.

Q. The last question. This whole picture is very scary for the Western civilization. In your opinion what should the Western world do to stop the war. You mentioned that Vladimir Putin and this group that is ruling Russia will go as far as it will be allowed. What should the West do to stop it?

First, not just the West but the whole world because there is no big difference between thre West and the rest of the World. First of all they should understand the nature of the problem. At this moment – I would say one month ago – it was a very clear sign that not very many people of the West understand it. Or would want to understand that. In the last couple of weeks we see some elements of evolution with the Chancellor Angela Merkel, and her, maybe belated admittance that her approach towards relations between Germany and Russia was a mistake. It was a mistake for nine years. She was trying to be an interlocutor between the West and Putin personally, and Putin's Russia and it ended in disaster.

OK – she as a cautious person so she did not allow Georgia and Ukraine to take to path to become members of NATO. Actually that provoked Mr. Putin to attack Georgia and occupy one fifth of Georgian territory. Well, this is why the personal responsibility for this mistaken approach is with Mrs. Merkel. That should be understood very clearly. That she really started to understand better the nature of the problem, was clear from her remarks of the Brisbane G20 meeting and her recent speech in the Bundestag. That is a positive sign.

But Mrs. Merkel is not the only person in the West who should understand it. The other person is Mr. Obama and he should be able to understand the problem. But from this first stage of understanding there are very many other steps that should be taken based on this understanding. Because the only way to stop an aggressor is resistance. Resistance in many ways, starting from information resistance, political resistance, moral resistance and psychological resistance and at some point if it is necessary, resistance with force. If there is no resistance, the aggressor will continue to attack other countries. In all ways, not only militarily but with information and disinformation campaign, psychological warfare, with cyber warfare, and it is not considered to be an aggression in many Western countries. Nevertheless these nations and these societies could fall victims of this new type of hybrid war.


* * *

Andrey Nikolayevich Illarionov (Russian: Андре́й Никола́евич Илларио́нов, born September 16, 1961) is a Russian economist and former economic policy advisor to the President of Russia,Vladimir Putin. He works as a senior fellow in the Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity at the Cato Institute in Washington, DC. (Andrey Illarionov)

TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
Observe the prediction of "Arab Spring in Europe" that may have turned prophetic with the events Paris.
1 posted on 01/10/2015 9:18:52 PM PST by annalex
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To: A.A. Cunningham; AlexW; andyk; BatGuano; bayliving; Belteshazzar; bert; Bibman; Bigg Red; ...

If you want to be on this right wing, monarchy, paleolibertarianism and nationalism ping list, but are not, please let me know. If you are on it and want to be off, also let me know. This ping list is not used for Catholic-Protestant debates.

2 posted on 01/10/2015 9:19:31 PM PST by annalex (fear them not)
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To: annalex

This goes along with prophecies made by Catholic saints, a 3rd world war would begin with Russia and Islam waging war across western Europe. I believe this writer is correct, 2015, I believe, will be the year. Europe, and the world situation are a powder keg. It’s going to be very ugly.

3 posted on 01/11/2015 2:33:21 AM PST by Cap'n Crunch
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To: Cap'n Crunch
Russia and Islam waging war across western Europe.

That's not much more than Putin taking advantage of the focus on ISIS and Islamic terrorism. The relationship of Russia and Islam is variable, they fight some and support others. Not much different than other countries like the US.

4 posted on 01/11/2015 6:22:56 AM PST by palmer (Free is when you don't have to pay for nothing. Or do nothing. We want Obamanet.)
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To: Cap'n Crunch

Which prophecy exactly? Very interesting.

5 posted on 01/11/2015 1:04:50 PM PST by annalex (fear them not)
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To: palmer

The difference is that the neo-sovs indeed consider Eastern Europe to be nations without rights, that need to be re-conquered at first opportunity. Militant Islam rising in West Europe will give Putin such opportunity.

There is another factor. Muslims in Western Europe are concerned, very often, with things we Christian conservatives are concerned about: establishment of pro-gay and anti-religious regimes all across Europe and the US. Putin might see an opportunity also to build a fifth column of supporters in the West, if the cultural left wing solidifies against the Muslims.

6 posted on 01/11/2015 1:12:23 PM PST by annalex (fear them not)
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To: annalex

There are so many. I have several books: “Catholic Prophecy” by Yves Dupont, “Prophecy for today” by Edward Connor and “The last world war and the end of time” by Emmett Culligan.

There is also the ongoing apparition of Our Lady at Fatima in which she foretold the coming of World War II and what would happen afterward.

You can google these books and read many of the prophecies yourself. The most modern warning by Our Lady came in 1973 when she appeared in Akita, Japan and warned that much of mankind would be annihilated if men did not become better. Our Lord Himself appeared to St. Faustina Kowlaska with several warnings for mankind in the 1930’s.

These prophecies, in a nutshell, tell of the growing immorality of mankind, the spread of Communism and Islam. The persecution of Christians. A great revolution and wars throughout Europe in which France and England will nearly be completely destroyed. St. Peter’s Church in Rome destroyed and the west on the brink of annihilation before a Great Monarch comes forward, along with a Holy Pope who counterattack and rout the Communists and Mohammedans.

There are too many to list but they all point to the same events. Fatima and Akita are both declared worthy of belief by the Catholic Church although no Catholic is obligated to believe them.

I have been interested in this type of thing for some time and believe we are on the brink of the worldwide conflagration.

7 posted on 01/11/2015 3:21:30 PM PST by Cap'n Crunch
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