[nathanbedford]

I quite agree with you concerning Russia. The competition from Russia will be severely curtailed if the combination of sanctions and falling oil prices forces the Russian government to take confiscatory measures to protect the ruble. If Russia attempts to control the export of hard currency or confiscate profits of oil drillers expect capital markets for Russia to really dry up even beyond what is already required for sanctions.

Putin is being reduced to fewer and fewer options. In order to maintain his control which has been funded by the extraction industries, he might be forced into confiscatory measures or higher taxes or some combination. Once that happens, confidence from the West will disappear and he will be left with China as a sugar daddy. The Chinese will not roll over; they will get their pound of flesh.

The good news in that scenario is that it is likely to destroy any hopes of a German Russian alliance.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

In any 50-50 deal with China, the Chinese get the hyphen.