However, I am intrigued at what you present as a watershed event (Post October 1, 2015):
I believe Martin Armstrong to be right. Due to the failure of an ideologue President and Congress to come to terms on the budget, we will see not only a government shutdown, but a default on our national debt. This will set off a worldwide financial panic because our bonds are the collateral of the world banking system.
Obama will cite a clause in the 14th Amendment about the debt of the US not being questioned to assert that he can spend as he wishes without going to Congress. This will be King Charles I versus Parliament all over again. Congress will go to court, and the House will impeach Obama. Some 30 Democrats in the House will vote for impeachment to assert the rights of Congress according to the Constitution. Power will trump party.
I am uncertain as to whether you are positing this as a serious expectation, or just using it as "for example, this could happen" type of scenario. I have read Armstrong on and off for sometime, but may have missed something that he has posted on this scenario, is there a reference?
The reason that I am asking is that I simply don't see such a scenario unfolding around 10/1/15 (or anytime soon). Maybe I am missing something big (and please correct me if I am), but I just see more business as usual coming down the pike.
Whether the Congress and the Ideologue agree on a budget or not, whether there is a brief nominal "government shutdown" or not, I see no plausible scenario in which there is a default on the national debt. Current revenues are at the level that support servicing the debt without fail (it won't always be the case, but it is currently). The Executive would have to make a deliberate decision to order Treasury to *NOT* make the required payments, it would not happen because the funds were not available. (Is this what you expect to happen?)
Additionally, I don't think that the Ideologue will ever have to flail at using that clause of the 14th Amendment as a justification for continued spending, since I believe that the Executive and Congress have found a nifty little method of getting around that whole messiness of a "debt ceiling." Haven't they decided the last 2 (or has it been 3 at this point?) times that they would not bother getting their hands dirty with having to actually vote to raise the debt ceiling? Haven't they decided each time to vote to merely "suspend" the effect of having a debt ceiling?
Maybe I am jaded and cynical (well, no maybes about that!), but I expect that they will follow the same course for the foreseeable future. Hence there will be no default, and spending will continue apace, unrestricted by any anachronistic construct such as a "theoretical debt ceiling!" Hence, there will be no precipitating event occurring around 10/1/2015. (Unless I am really missing something here, if so, please clue me in!!)
But as I said, I do appreciate your scenario and ALL of the contributions that you make here on this vital subject. In short, I suppose that I am saying that I agree that your scenario likely contains a lot of what we will see come to the fore, but I think the timeframe will be much extended, absent some type of precipitating event.
He refers to October 1, 2015 as the "Big Bang." He sees that as the bursting of a 33 year bubble in bonds that will cause money to flee into stocks. Why? Because most money is electronic bits and bytes, and it will go from one electronic investment medium to another. Gold will catch a bid eventually, but not soon.
He expects the first bubble-bursting to occur in Europe as the Eurozone collapses. He sees the next problem to occur here.
I meant what I said literally. I expect Obama and Congress to play a game of "chicken" that causes the US dollar to lose reserve currency status. That will knock the props off everything. At that point, it will all be about pointing fingers, but this time even the Mainstream Media will not be able to save Obama's skinny butt with their slavish coverage.
This is when the states will finally say, "Enough! We're taking over!" This is when the 35 to 39 applications will come to Congress, and Congress will be put in a very difficult position.
My solution is for the states to claim the high ground quickly, and I'm thankful that the Convention of the States movement is doing just that.