That's what we've been hearing but honestly it's just not what I've been seeing:
My take is that while the price of oil has fallen stocks have been climbing, and they've fluctuated for (imho) other reasons.
Posted on 01/04/2015 9:26:15 AM PST by expat_panama
Good stuff. Thanks.
I think once it hits 440/bbl the Saudi’s cut production to stabilize.
BHI shows rig counts peaking at 1609 in October and falling 8% to 1482 last week.
I really hope you didn’t do that. The oil stocks, according to Cramer, and I think he’s quite right on this one, will follow down for two or three quarters. Their profits will be adversly affected for those quarters and they won’t adjust to the new normal for at least 2 quarters.
Hold off if you can. (just my 2 cents).
If BP breaks 35, I’m buying - again. I’ve bought a total of 800 shares so far in the past couple of months, from 39 to 35. With the dividend it pays, I’m comfortable with my decision.
I’m also closely following XOM and CAT, and plan to add those to my portfolio within the next few months.
I had been taking profits over the past couple of years, in anticipation of buying opportunities.
As I’ve been an investor (as opposed to a trader) for 40 years, I understand the risks and opportunities.
Also, I hardly ever pay any attention to Cramer. The man is merely another loudmouthed frontrunner, who the SEC won’t touch because he’s politically connected.
IMHO.
TARP was Paulson/Bush. Bernanke was QE.
Yeah those guys were there too, but our issue is how too many people confuse TARP with the massive tax’n’spending programs that started in ‘09. While it’s easy to label the entire policy package as “bailouts”, the fact remains that TARP and the ‘09 deficit spending excesses shouldn’t be equated.
Well, you sound like you’ve got the experience. I’ve been at this for 45 years myself, but this fall off in the commodity space is worrisome.
What’s really strange is the deflation in Europe. That sounds like it could be a problem.
Money and investing is much more an emotional function, rather than simple arithmetic. Time and again, we have seen that the best time to buy is when the markets are in a panic and prices are low - 1974, 1982, 1987, 2003, 2009. In hindsight, it seems obvious.
But it takes a crazy person to go against the herd and place an order to buy or sell contrary to everyone else.
Several months ago, I read a bio of Hetty Green, “The Richest Woman on Wall Street.” She managed to master her fears and buy distressed companies and made a fortune doing it.
I’ve made plenty investing mistakes, but fortunately I learned very early on that short-term trading was NOT the way to build wealth.
Historically, integrated energy companies (not the drillers or small service companies) have been a sound long-term investment. And they’re kinda on sale now.
I may be buying a bit too early - I’ve done that before - but I’m patient enough to see it through.
I'm guessing it has to do with the strength of the dollar but that doesn't make a lot of sense either.
Can you give me a little insight?
That's what we've been hearing but honestly it's just not what I've been seeing:
My take is that while the price of oil has fallen stocks have been climbing, and they've fluctuated for (imho) other reasons.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/brent-crude-falls-below-50-a-barrel-1420609392
Oil-Product Prices Fall as Supplies Climb
U.S. Inventory Data Confirm the Market Is Still Oversupplied
By Nicole Friedman
Updated Jan. 7, 2015 7:06 p.m. ET
Prices at the gas pump are heading even lower.
Gasoline futures fell to nearly a six-year low on Wednesday after U.S. government data showed oil and fuel supplies rising to a record high last week, the latest evidence of a petroleum glut that has rattled financial markets and raised questions about the strength of global economic growth.
U.S. crude-oil prices rose modestly, but there was little indication that the market, which has plunged by 55% since late June, has hit a bottom.
Weekly inventory data released by the federal Energy Information Administration reinforced the belief among many investors and traders that increasing oil output continues to overwhelm the growth in demand, a situation that is likely to further undercut prices across the board.
U.S. stockpiles of crude oil, refined fuels and other types of petroleum rose 0.9% to 1.149 billion barrels in the week ended Jan. 2, according to the EIA. That is the highest level ever in weekly data dating back to 1990, and beats the previous high set in June 2013. The total doesn’t count the barrels held in the nation’s strategic petroleum reserve.
“There is no shortage, anywhere, at the moment,” said Donald Morton, senior vice president of Herbert J. Sims & Co., who oversees an energy-trading desk at the Fairfield, Conn., investment bank. “Our inventories are getting high.”
Yo! Futures @ 2 hrs before the bell: stock indexes punching up again 0.77%, metals off a bit to -0.07%, and energies 
continuing freefall -0.15% --all this after yesterdays steady metals and soaring stocks in lower (but above average) volume. We're good! Reports this AM:
Challenger Job Cuts
Continuing Claims
Initial Claims
Natural Gas Inventories
Consumer Credit
--and a whole lot of brand new FR econ threads:
--and this is how all the printing press QE bailouts have been devaluing the dollar...
Stop with the facts!! My mind is made up and you’re confusing the issue!!
/sarc
Right! Talking with folks upset about Fed bailouts is like trying to work with global warmers.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-oil-glut-spurs-top-161022997.html
Oil glut spurs top traders to book supertankers for storage at sea
Reuters
By Jonathan Saul, Claire Milhench and David Sheppard
LONDON (Reuters) - Some of the world’s largest oil traders have this week hired supertankers to store crude at sea, marking a milestone in the build-up of the global glut.
Trading firms including Vitol [VITOLV.UL], Trafigura [TRAFGF.UL] and energy major Shell (RDSa.L) have all booked crude tankers for up to 12 months, freight brokers and shipping sources told Reuters.
They said the flurry of long-term bookings was unusual and suggested traders could use the vessels to store excess crude at sea until prices rebound, repeating a popular 2009 trading gambit when prices last crashed.
The more than 50 percent fall in spot prices now allows traders to make money by storing the crude for delivery months down the line, when prices are expected to recover.
The price of Brent crude is now around $8 a barrel higher for delivery at the end of 2015, with its premium rising sharply over spot prices this week due to forecasts for a large surplus in the first half of this year, in a market structure known as contango.
I heard it here first.
We can tell a lot about the writer's thinking the way he's saying "when" and not "if".
LOL! One of my coffee buddies, who doesn’t believe in the “stock market” and says its too risky (I think he uses mason jars in the back yard), is always saying “when” the market crashes. Of course, one day he’ll be right. But if I press him as to a date, he splutters and comes up with something like “next fall” or “after the first of the year” or some such.
I’ve been baiting up him for the past two years, and asking him about his predictions all being wrong. Then he denies saying it, so I say I’m going to start bringing a tape recorder to morning coffee.
Great theater!
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