High prices, at least until late summer. There is a lag, I believe. As there will be a lag in the consumption increase. Once folks get a bit used to it, they’ll drive plenty. Always have.
But this oil price drop is primarily, but not exclusively, a supply issue. The near-doubling of US production in the past several years is to “blame.”
In my opinion, you give far too much weight to the US gasoline consumption rate towards the global price of oil. And it doesn’t fluctuate nearly that much.