[Boogieman]

“What trends are you seeing?”

The tea party keeps gaining seats in the House. If that trend continues, RINOs cannot hold on the house leadership much longer, and then they cannot dictate any legislative agenda or collude with the left on these types of budget shenanigans.

“I feel very comfortable in the prediction (and equally uncomfortable in the reality) that the establishment Republicans will have firm control over all leadership positions for at least the next 5 years.”

Maybe, but 5 years is a very short time, politically speaking.

[jjsheridan5]

Maybe, but 5 years is a very short time, politically speaking.

Not all years are created equal. A five year period that includes amnesty is a political eternity, especially when coupled with unlimited funding by businesses similarly hostile to conservatism. By the time the conservatives took over the party (or even just had some influence -- since we are in purely fantasy driven hypothesis, it doesn't matter), we would find ourselves presiding over a minority party in a country so far down the left-wing rabbit hole any move to the right would constitute nothing more than a drop in the ocean.

You may pin your hopes on the increase in "tea party" members in the house (how long they stay "tea party" being a relevant question mark). I, however, do not believe that the establishment will ever relinquish control, and will co-opt or marginalize any new members, and, in all of this, they will have the full backing of the democrat party, business interests, the media, popular culture, and education. I would love to be wrong on this, but I won't be.

This was briefly Reagan's party. It won't ever be again, any more than the Democrat party will be his. Third party is the only possible answer.