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My fantasy is the RINO’s duke it out in a 3 way between Romney, Bush, and Christie, while we consolidate behind Ted. (Or Sarah)

Unfortunately it is a fantasy because the Conservatives will duke it out among Cruz, Perry, Paul, Santorum, Carson, and possibly half a dozen more. I think the GOPe will rally behind a Bush or a Romney very quickly. That will allow them to build momentum while the Conservative vote is still fractured.

I'm not too sure about that. Here's how I see things:

Cruz: probable top tier candidate, unless he and his campaign implode. Will have significant support, but money will be a question.

Perry: established rep as an idiot. Will lack both support and money.

Paul: established rep as a nut. Will lack money, but inherit his Dad's supporters and build them out. Slightly.

Santorum: Seen as an also-ran, has had too low of a public profile since 2012. Will lack support and money, particularly with Cruz in the race.

Carson: will be haunted by his gun-control statements. Will lack money and support.

As to the others who may be in the race:

Walker: possible top-tier candidate, also a possible Perry 2012 waiting to happen. We'll see.

Bush: probable top-tier candidate, will have big money, good organization and possibly decent support.

Romney: probable second-tier candidate, will have the same as Bush

Christie: probable second-tier candidate. Money and org will be unknown (he was relying on being the sole moderate in the field, will now potentially have to compete with Bush and/or Romney), but he can really ramp up the rhetoric and probably attract decent support.

So, when it comes to the top candidates in the race, I see it as Cruz, Walker, Bush, Romney and Christie, with everyone else playing the role of ankle-biter.