Posted on 12/09/2014 9:03:11 AM PST by Rummyfan
The world is changing and becoming even more dangerous — in a way we’ve seen before.
In the decade before World War I, the near-100-year European peace that had followed the fall of Napoleon was taken for granted. Yet it abruptly imploded in 1914. Prior little wars in the Balkans had seemed to predict a much larger one on the horizon — and were ignored.
The exhausted Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman empires were spent forces unable to control nationalist movements in their provinces. The British Empire was fading. Imperial Germany was rising. Czarist Russia was beset with revolutionary rebellion. As power shifted, decline for some nations seemed like opportunity for others.
The same was true in 1939. The tragedy of the Versailles Treaty of 1919 was not that it had been too harsh. In fact, it was far milder than the terms Germany had imposed on a defeated Russia in 1918 or the requirements it had planned for France in 1914.
Instead, Versailles combined the worst of both worlds: harsh language without any means of enforcement.
The subsequent appeasement of Britain and France, the isolationism of the United States, and the collaboration of the Soviet Union with Nazi Germany green-lighted Hitler’s aggression — and another world war.
We are entering a similarly dangerous interlude. Collapsing oil prices — a good thing for most of the world — will make troublemakers
Read more here: http://www.fresnobee.com/2014/12/06/4273844_victor-davis-hanson-a-large-war.html?rh=1#storylink=cpy
(Excerpt) Read more at fresnobee.com ...
Korea, Vietnam, the Arab Israeli blow ups, Iraq and both our and the Soviets’ Afghan adventures won’t detract from the period from 1945 to now being called a “Pax Americana”, just as the Pax Britannica is used by historians to cover the period from 1815 to 1914. He’s saying the Pax Americana in which most of us have been born, reared, and assumed to be perpetual may finally be reaching its close. Historically speaking, when these periods end one can usually count the corpses in the millions. This time it could be billions.
I see the Middle East as a powder keg. A prelude to war will be Israel attacking Iranian nuclear facilities since the bumbling US policies are allowing the Iranians to develop a bomb. At best this attack might buy some time, but Obama will condemn the attack and implement sanctions against Israel. Iran will continue to develop a bomb, likely with help from North Korea, and in short order will have a nuclear device that can be launched at least on an intermediate range missile. Iran may believe that under Obama’s feckless leadership they could actually use the bomb against Israel with little fear of US intervention. Israel would of course use nuclear retaliation and a nuclear war in the Middle East would ensue with the US and Russia being drawn into the conflict.
FWIW, I met VDH once, back in 2006, when he, I, and four other historians were invited to the Oval Office to spend an hour and a half with Pres. Bush. He is a brilliant guy, and knows it.
We then had him to our campus to speak. He did some things that I thought were not very classy. For ex., he never once inquired about the school (which was paying him a hefty fee), who our students were, what our religious tradition was, and so on. He came, did his speech (excellent), and left. Nevertheless, I still assign his book "Carnage and Culture," because he is one of the few who really "gets" why the US (and in general, the west) kicks butt in warfare.
The Italian Wars of Independence come to mind too for the transitional naval Battle of Lissa, between the Austrian Empire and Italy. It had wooden ships, armored ships, ramming and explosive shells.
FWIW, I met VDH once, back in 2006, when he, I, and four other historians were invited to the Oval Office to spend an hour and a half with Pres. Bush.
I’ve read VDH for quite some time. You have probably seen this piece, it is one of his best, in my opinion:
http://victorhanson.com/wordpress/?p=5057
FRegards !
History doesn’t repeat itself, but sometimes it rhymes.
Nah, we are chuck full of invaders already.
The Love is so long.
My students like his book a lot, although it does get repetitive. I don’t think he answers his critics well on the weak parts of his book, which would sure help me as a teacher.
I will have to visit the library, and check it out. I do notice that, indeed, VDH is repetitive, in his writing.
Off topic: I noticed you once shared a stage with my ‘Uncle’ Joe Walsh :)
that is my uncle ...
btw, I have found it very difficult to trace Walsh back to county of origination in Ireland. Too common a name. Have u had Any luck on same?
How funny ! Back in the day, I got more than one date, when a girl would ask if I was related, and I would “claim” him as my uncle, and he might get us backstage passes. He played with the Eagles, in New Haven, about 1978, and one of the girls called my bluff ;)
My grandfather, who was born in Syracuse, once told me that our ancestors were originally Welshmen, who immigrated to County Mayo, in the olden times. This was an oral accounting. Although I’ve seen enough, online, to support that claim, I never actually substantiated it.
Funny anecdote - in the 70’s, a coworker said he’d give me a call, and schedule time for a few beers. I offered him my number, but he said he would just call 411. I told him it would never work, but he scoffed at me. Sure enough, next time I saw him, I asked why I didn’t hear from him. “When I gave the operator your name, she just laughed at me”.
well, my great grandfather John Walsh ... death certificate says he was born in Ireland (no county) and his father was John ... which makes it very hard to trace back to his birth records. There are numerous John Walshes in the records in Ireland that are possibly a match, it is hard to know for sure if the John Walsh buried here in CT is the same John Walsh that was born in a particular town.
Irish census was burned in 1922 civil war.
My Dad was Ed Walsh, his funeral was in Connecticut. Over the course of his years in town, he met another fellow with the same name, as they were always mistaken for each other. When my Dad passed away, the other Ed Walsh was at the funeral; my siblings and I had a chuckle later, about how odd it must have been to hear his name eulogized!
I saw my name on a gravestone last month as I walked through a cemetery. Some people put their name on the monument before they die, but this fellow was surely dead.
This is the best FREE site online. Helpful, but often false leads ...
your great grandfather’s death certificate likely shows his parents names. you can look at it for free at your town hall. it might even say MAYO as birth place.
I ran into an acquaintance at church yesterday ... it occurred to me that she might be related to my cousins .... after 3 minutes we realized that we were cousins. She is my mother’s 4th cousin. I never would have known without researching because how would I know her mother’s maiden name?
Thanks for the information - I will look into it !
Ha ha ha ha! I had a similar thought when I saw the title.
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