13% of the population...
without much quality leadership...
blindly following agitators for years...
mostly without resources or skills to last more than a week without outside assistance...
highly concentrated in small areas...
inciting violence out of knee-jerk emotional reactions...
basing very little on facts or reason or logic or justice...
disdaining history or education...
espousing virtues like abuse of women, pursuit of material wealth, glorification of drugs...
I don't think they have the odds "ever in their favor".