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1. Thanks to fracking, we see a huge new supply of oil and natural gas being opened up all over the USA. And that means we could have a vastly better balance of trade since we will be importing a lot less oil from OPEC countries.
2. China's recent gigantic deal from Russia to build pipelines into Siberia to import crude oil and natural gas means China will end up being way less dependent on OPEC countries.
3. Europe--likely heading into a recession again--will mean lower demand for oil from the Middle East.
In short, OPEC is facing a huge dilemma: they may lose their two of their biggest customers and Europe falling into a recession will lower demand for OPEC oil. We're about to end up with a huge glut of petroleum products.
Yergin agrees. He knows the biz from a historical standpoint.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Prize:_The_Epic_Quest_for_Oil,_Money,_and_Power
The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power is Daniel Yergin’s history of the global oil industry from the 1850s through 1990. The Prize became a bestseller owing to its release date: it was published in October 1990, two months after the invasion of Kuwait ordered by Saddam Hussein and three months before the U.S.-led coalition began the Gulf War to oust Iraqi troops from that country.[1] It eventually went on to win the Pulitzer Prize.[2]
The Prize has been called the “definitive” history of the oil industry, even a “bible”.[3