Posted on 11/29/2014 11:35:24 AM PST by Tailgunner Joe
What would happen to the price of oil if a war shut down the Straits of Hormuz for a month? A year?
Who wins, who loses?
Indeed, Germany has become the ruler of Europe, and without firing a shot. They are not about to throw it away. They’ve been waiting for this day, “Der Tag,” for a long time.
Where does Germany get the natural gas that keeps Germans from freezing to death this January?
What happens in the energy sector if the Straits of Hormuz region has a little war?
Not suggesting the who at this time, just the what and the where.
Energy prices.
Straits of Hormuz.
“Who benefits” results in its own natural gravitational pull
Did the Oil Companies and Fracking Scientists do to Russian what Obama’s Economic Sanctions could NOT do ?
Fracking Science evolved while Obama was shutting down offshore drilling and Federal Lease sales. North Dakota Bakken Oil filed and 4% unemployment in ND happened when Obama wasn’t looking. Most land in North Dakota is privately owned. LOL
The American Free Economy brings Russia’s Putin to his Knees !!!
See above. The “rich man” who “owns” the river might be surprised if the “poor” landowner above builds a canal or a dam and stores it or diverts it.
Wealth comes in many forms and has many meanings, some of which change as circumstances change.
Witness the rich aristocrat selling every acre up to the palace, and then the palace, painting by painting do the bare walls. Until the palace is gone and he learns that he is actually poor.
Or the poor landowner, who discovers that it contains a massive oil claim, or such.
Fortunes can shift, and so can the definition of wealth. Sometimes with great rapidity.
Does Caliph Baraq even know ND is one of the 57 states?
But the built-in minimum cost to bring a barrel of fracked oil to market is much higher, so at somewhere around $60 it is going to slow to a crawl, and throw thousands out of work.
Only the Saudis and a few other players can make money at that price.
But what if something happened that caused ME oil to be unable to get to market? Like a war?
Putin built a pipeline directly to Germany across the North Sea precisely so he can cut Ukraine and Poland off, while still supplying Germany. He built the pipeline to use it, and that’s exactly what he’s going to do. He’ll freeze out Eastern Europe, but Germany has nothing to worry about.
I think the U.S. would be fine. China and Japan would be screwed.
Russia would make out like a bandit. The U.S. production could ramp up.
The supply overall would take a hit. The price would go up. A Lot. $200, $300? I cannot begin to guess.
My guess is that we would not “allow” it to be closed that long. The Chinese and Japanese would not put up with that either.
I would also think that pipeline proposed across Syria would get done PDQ.
Because they need the gas. We cannot get it to them fast enough. We don’t have an infrastructure. They need the gas to power their plants and heat their homes.
I think we're obliged to supply Japan with oil/gas during crisis periods.
Do we have the infrastructure to supply that much gas to anyone?
I can't answer that.
Gee, that's never happened before. Oh wait, yes it has! It was called THE REAGAN YEARS, followed by the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Ahh yes, the good ol' days when Communism was on the ropes, pronounced dead and left to rot.
It took the Obama Administration to revive Communism, and good old fashioned Capitalism to put Communism down again. Woot!!
Germany has a LOT to worry about, as long as the source for what keeps Germans from freezing to death in winter is controlled by Vlad Putin.
He might be smiling at Angela today, and cutting the tap tomorrow.
Smart mines lying all over the Straits of Hormuz might not be that easy to clear. Especially if a few US Navy warships are already sunk by Iranian supersonic cruise missiles that pop out of caves to fire.
And in any Iran war scenario, (Israel going after Iranian nuke program), Iran rockets the Saudi and other Gulf oil terminals. These vast areas of pipe junctions are perfect ballistic missile targets. Just keep lobbing a SCUD in every few days, and no oil moves.
Might be harder than you think to get M.E. oil moving again, after a state of war is declared in the region, and insurance policies are cancelled.
“I think we’re obliged to supply Japan with oil/gas during crisis periods.”
Yeah, like Obama is going to enforce that! Step One: Challenge the Chinese PLA-Navy to back down in the region.
Whoops, not so easy any more. And Obama has no ball, etc.
A new day is coming, that will blow up every agreement and treaty from at least Bretton Woods on.
with the recent contracts to pay for Russian oil in Rubles, can Chine buy oil for rubles and then sell for $$ and make a profit?
Putin cannot cut the tap to Germany without hurting himself even worse than he hurts Germany. What you haven’t considered is the possibility that Vladimir does not in fact have Russia’s best interests at heart. Why does Vladimir have his looted Russian cash hidden in Switzerland and Lichtenstein? Why does he have such a special close relationship with Germans he met during the Cold War? Why do his daughters have relationships with westerners, rather than Russians?
Has it ever occurred to you that it is not the Germans who are selling out their best interests to Putin, but rather Putin who is selling out Russia’s best interests to Germany?
Putin is not what he appears to be. Don’t be fooled by his carefully stage-managed public image. It’s a lie.
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