Stock Rally Stalls with Republican Win; Investment & Finance Thread Nov. 9, 2014

Weekly investment & finance thread ^ | Nov. 9, 2014 | Freeper Investors

[expat_panama]

Good morning, and the adventure continues!  Futures traders see stocks +0.18% and metals at -0.10%, no major econ reports (not til Wed.), interesting news tho..

• Fewer active managers beat market than at any time in decade Fewer fund managers are beating the market this year than at any time in over a decade, piling further misery on a profession that faces increasing investor scepticism. Fewer than one in five active managers ... Financial Times

• Private investors pour billions into mobile internet growth The tech industry has a new Billion Dollar Club. The label used to have a certain exclusivity when it came to private start-ups. But it no longer seems so selective: more than 40 tech companies have broken ... Financial Times

• With dollar on a tear, gold and silver rout far from over - Reuters poll Half of the 27 respondents surveyed on Wednesday and Thursday predicted gold prices will breach a critical support at $1,100 per ounce by the end of this year. Reuters

• Piketty's Equality Reached a Sad Conclusion In Berlin - Swami Aiyar, IBD

• The 4% Withdrawal Rule for Retirement Is Broken - Jon Stein, USA Today

[expat_panama]

sell (or hold) on the news....

Good point, we don't want to forget sell rules.   My thinking is we don't sell something that's in the process of a price climb, just like it's not wise to buy into a falling price. 

[Wyatt's Torch]

This is the biggest issue facing the GOP:

[SAJ]

Pete -- NG build last week was 92 BCF, well more than typical for first week of Nov. Notwithstanding, we've had an instant 40-cent rally since. This leads me to believe that the NYMEX boys are focused solely on the long-range weather forecast for a cold winter (in the NE, mainly, but nationwide generally -- the NE always controls the futures, regardless of whether its 75 in Cincinnati and 80 in Charlotte).

This rally looks very persistent, and will only ebb week-by-week when the extra-cold weather does not materialise. A January ratio-spread, long 1 600 call and short 4 or 5 700 calls, looks very attractive. Defend at 600 by buying 1 650 call, and (if!) at 650 by buying 1 675 call. I don't think defense will come into play, though; the trade only lasts for roughly 6 weeks. It'll take a hell of a cold snap to bump prices another buck.

Good trading, SAJ

[expat_panama]

biggest issue facing the GOP

--or rather the next issue the loony left will try and hurl at their opposition.   It's mindless and makes absolutely no sense other than for pure cheap class envy. 

Looking at the numbers and what've we got?  Are we saying that everyone must be paid the same?  We want real median wages increasing like they did before they began falling in 2009?  Are we saying that America has some kind of ruling class that 10% are born into and never leave?  The fact is that since 2000 real percapita incomes have soared 20%; if wages are steady while incomes have soared --that's bad?

The loony leftist PBS agenda uses just wages and not total employee compensation.  Their numbers show real average wages within a percent of 2000 levels, but the BEA shows real average employee total compensation having increased by over 8%.   Steady wages w/ benefit increases.  That's good.

Knowing PBS is spreading thier leftist lies is bad enough.  My having to pay for 'em though my taxes is too much.

[expat_panama]

we've had an instant 40-cent rally

I see it--

It is a sizable jump compared to the recent past; what confused me was my looking for a longer term increase that wasn't there:

My head was too much into swing trading time frames.  TX fer the headsup!

[expat_panama]

OK, I just finished breathing into a paper bag and I feel better now. TX fer putting up w/ my rant...

[1010RD]

Does BEA include healthcare insurance in that calc? I think what WT and we are seeing on FR and elsewhere is people’s perceptions. We had a period of time when China was coming online and RE was appreciating where people felt that prices were lower and wealth was growing nearly weekly. That feeling is gone.

The exciting thing for a GOP Pres. is that you can really juice the US economy by simply rolling back Obama/Dem’s regulatory regime and returning cap gains back to 10% long term and not ord. income short term. As more and more seniors depend on their stock market returns that would motivate voters along with the economy.

Growth covers a lot of bad politics. Look what the Gingrich boom did for Clinton.

[expat_panama]

	Markets		yesterday		today
	metals		Last sales saw gold at $1,151,45 and silver at $15.57		Futures @ 3-1/2 hrs. before opening -0.65%
	stocks		"Quiet Market Session...   ...Stocks ended with modest gains Monday after starting off the session in choppy fashion. Leading stocks acted well. The Nasdaq rose 0.4% to its highest close since March 28, 2000..." [from here]		Futures +0.11%

-and a very good Veteran's Day morning to everyone!  Still no econ reports but there's this:

• Google and the final frontier: tech giant leases NASA airfield Irish Times - 24 minutes ago The International Space Station. Google is working with NASA to develop smart robots designed to fly around the International Space Station and eventually take over some menial tasks from astronauts with the aid of custom-built smartphones.
• Can Money Buy You Happiness? - Andrew Blackman, Wall Street Journal
• A SCOTUS Case That Could Erase Obamcare - Diana Furchtgott-Roth, RCM
• It's Black Friday For Wall Street Contrarians - Brett Arends, MarketWatch
• Early Freeze Could Derail Economic Growth Forecasts

[expat_panama]

what WT and we are seeing on FR and elsewhere is people’s perceptions.    when China was coming online and RE was appreciating where people felt that prices were lower and wealth was growing

You and I are in perfect agreement that the core of this question is people's perceptions and not econ nuts'n'bolts.  People love doom'n'gloom and they always have.  I've never seen any posts or article in years past where anyone was happy saying "prices were lower and wealth was growing".  Ever.  Last decade when RE prices were up everyone on these threads was complaining about how housing had become unaffordable and we needed some kind of Homeowner Protection and Affordable Housing Act to correct the market's wrongdoing.

[Chgogal]

Fracking came online after 2008.

[expat_panama]

Top of the morning everyone, looks like we're seeing yesterday's "Stocks Edge Higher In Quiet Veterans Day Session" turning into today's "Indices -0.30%".  This weeks econ reports begin w/ MBA Mortgage Index and Wholesale Inventories while our pundits are all over the place saying whatever take anyone could have.

We'll see what happens...

[expat_panama]

Fracking came online after 2008.

Big time, and none of the gov't know-it-alls saw it coming.  Today's IBD frontpage said it well in "No Energy Policy Has Been A Blessing For Shale Boom"

I agree that it's had a huge impact on energy prices in general and NG in particular.

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

OPEC Delegates Start Whispering About Potential Oil Cut
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3226086/posts

[expat_panama]

tx! What’s surprising to me is not only are the OPECer’s unaware of shale’s reality, so are a lot of other good poeple.

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

” OPECer’s”

Ha, fitting name for em although I would have spelled it differently. I remember when I was a kid racing moto-x going to the local service station which was owned by my dad’s good buddy and filling up with gas to go to the races. They limited “most” everybody to 8 gals of gas. Get some dirty looks from people when your filling up the pickup and two or three gas cans.

They have been manipulating us every since. In fact it is my contention that the last financial crisis was in large part due to them. I know we were on shakey ground but when oil spiked to $150 a barrel I think that’s what sent it all tumbling.

[expat_panama]

 

 

 

 

It's a beautiful investing Thursday morning!   Not only have both stocks'n'metals been holding steady for a few days, this morning's futures are upbeat for everything but oil!   Just the same, today we'll also have to deal with these:

8:30 AM Initial Claims
8:30 AM Continuing Claims
10:00 AM JOLTS - Job Openings
10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories
11:00 AM Crude Inventories
2:00 PM Treasury Budget

The news seems to show a lot of the mixed caution that usually indicates remaining pent-up demand:

• A Record Market Run Raises Red Flags - Anora Mahmudova, MarketWatch
• A Market Bubble? Don't Blame QE - Robert Samuelson, Washington Post
• Sentiment Is Off The Charts Bullish - Lance Roberts, StreetTalk Live
• Dow 21K Could Come Sooner Than We Expect - Joe Nyaradi, USA Today
• Don’t get suckered by stock-market winning streak  Stocks have steadily been working their way back up from an October pullback, but with these kinds of streaks, it’s probably better waiting for a more attractive entry point. MarketWatch

 

 

 

It's a beautiful investing Thursday morning!   Not only have both stocks'n'metals been holding steady for a few days, this morning's futures are upbeat for everything but oil!   Just the same, today we'll also have to deal with these:

[expat_panama]

my contention that the last financial crisis was in large part due to them.

Huh.  At first I was skeptical, but I dug out this 284 page study from the Brookings Institute (available at this NBER site) and they say that the '08 oil shock did so much damage that without it --

it is unlikely that the period 2007Q4–2008Q3 would have been characterized as one of recession for the United States. This episode should thus be added to the list of U.S. recessions to which oil prices appear to have made a material contribution.

It may not have been in the news as much but as for price it was much more violent than the one in the '70's.  As far as OPEC goes, everyone likes to think that individuals or small groups if individuals can control the market, but the fact is that while cartels can mess things up in the short run they never last.  Supply and demand always wins out.

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

You have amazing search skills. That was just a gut feeling of mine but you have confirmed my bias’s. At least there is one other guy that thinks that spike was significant. Thanks.

[expat_panama]

lol --between my search skills and your guts we're making a pretty good team!

What I did was open google and entered for search "what caused the 2008 oil price spike?" and the brookings study was on top --but virtually the entire list was on board.  imho more folks should know about the articles, especially this one:  Oil Caused Recession, Not Wall Street.