You bring up some excellent points and explain them well. Those are the reasons I have always emphasized that my projections are not predictions of what is going to happen. My point isn’t that there will be x number of cases by y date. My point is that the historical rate of spread is a good indicator of the seriousness of the situation and why we should not ignore it.
Yesterday’s 11-9 reported new daily cases from Sierra Leone just reached an all-time high of 111, up from the 95 cases reported on 11-1 and the 110 new cases 11-6, bringing the SL 5 day moving average up from 66/day on 11-6 to yesterday’s new high 5 day average of 70 cases per day. The 10 day moving average has similarly reached a new high at 67/day up from the previous high of 63 new cases/day on 11-6.
Last reported daily new case totals from Liberia, Guinea and SL have also exceeded the previous 11-6 record of 190 new cases: SL 111 new cases 11-9, Guinea 67 new 11-7 and Liberia 50 new estimated cases, totaling 228 new daily cases in the most recently reported days. (If Guinea has misleadingly included their missing 11-5 and 11-6 cases in the 11-7 total, then the 3 country ‘last day’ total would be 184 new daily cases, which would be the 2nd highest daily 3 country total ever reported.)
Whether the 1 day 3-country totals are 228 or 184 cases, the EVD infection growth rate continues at an increase of between 1.4% and 1.7% cases per day, a rate that has declined only slightly over the past 3 months.
EVD appearing under control in Liberia, which has stopped regularly reporting reliable daily numbers, is an illusion. EVD running wild to new high daily numbers, averages and infection rates in Sierra Leone, is an alarming fact.