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To: monkeyshine
He would need something like 68% of all the absentee votes to win. Its not statistically possible (though mathematically plausible) that the absentee voters are 50% more likely than regular voters to vote for him.

Actually, it's very possible. The kinds of people who do absentee ballots might be military people - in which case they might vote 70-30 for Sullivan. Or they could be people from the remote areas of the reservations, in which case they might vote 70-30 for Begich. I'd say there's a good chance Begich might still win.

23 posted on 11/08/2014 12:55:20 PM PST by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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To: Zhang Fei

Don Young, Republican of Alaska, is the longest serving member of congress. He has to run a statewide election every two years. One would think Sullivan would get the same votes from the villages that Young got.


52 posted on 11/08/2014 2:28:52 PM PST by billhilly (First eligible to vote in 1958)
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To: Zhang Fei

Just a follow up, Sullivan won by about 8800 votes. Final is 119,000 vs 111,000, suggesting that the absentee votes fell almost exactly in the same proportion as the regular votes. Which is what “should have” happened statistically speaking. It was 110,000 to 102,000 at the time of this article, so the remaining votes split almost exactly 50-50 (9000 each). Its just incredibly unlikely that the absentee vote would break hard (70%) one way or the other unless it was from a very focused locale.


90 posted on 11/14/2014 12:13:47 AM PST by monkeyshine
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