You also have to look at the polls in the context of how the campaigns are acting.
Particularly right now, as GOTV mechanisms are spun up to drive and track turnout.
Campaigns will have turnout goals for each stage in the voting (early, absentee, election day), with mechanisms to track whether those goals are being met and provide short-turnaound (sometimes even realtime) feedback so the campaigns can try to implement corrective action.
Right now it seems like the Republicans are determined and confident, while the Dems are panicking. The GOP may just be clueless/oblivious (as they were with Romney in 2012), but there’s not a good reason for some of the things the Dems are doing other than they are seeing themselves already falling short of not only their goals but also their minimums.
So I’m cautiously optimistic about tomorrow.
I’m optimistic too. I’m only worried about three US Senate races: (1) KS (2) NH (3) NC.
If I were a Democrat, I would be pooping bricks over the US Senate races in the following states:
1) MT
2) WV
3) SD
4) AK
5) AR
6) LA
7) GA
8) KY
9) CO
10) IA