RCP Moves Virginia Senate Race Out of ‘Likely Dem’ Column

weekly standard ^

[Perdogg]

Ed Gillespie continues to close the gap on Mark Warner in the Virginia Senate race, causing Real Clear Politics to move the race from “Likely Dem” to “Leans Dem.” Virginia is currently the only Senate race in that category, which suggests it’s the GOP’s best chance to stage a substantial upset on election night.

[Perdogg]

According to both WMAL and The Hill, the race leans Comstock.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Come on guys....vote for Gillespie...

1. Gillespie is not Warner

2. Gillespie is a Republican .... and we need this seat to insure a majority in the Senate strong enough to issue a restraining order against the Obama regime.

3. We need to return Virginia from "purple" to "red"...or Hillary will use Virginia as her gateway to the South and the White House.

Come on Virginians let's get this done.

Hold your nose, close your eyes .... I don't care what it takes....but let's vote and turn both the pundits and the current Governor on their asses.

Get up, get out, go vote. And vote for Gillespie. Do it as though your nation needs his victory---because she does.

I hope to see you at the voting booth on Tuesday.

Godspeed Virginians. Godspeed!!

[kabar]

A national organization that didn’t deliver for Dave Brat. I am a member of the Virginia Tea Party Federation thru a local tea party. There is not much enthusiasm for Gillespie who is not viewed as a conservative. Gillespie is as Establishment as they come. He is what is wrong with the GOP.

[kabar]

3. We need to return Virginia from "purple" to "red"...or Hillary will use Virginia as her gateway to the South and the White House.

VA is not going to return to being "red." In a decade, it will be solid blue. Demography is destiny.

[zeebee]

I just can’t understand why the PA gov race seems to be going to the dems.
Do they really think they can get their base motivated?

[ScottinVA]

“And don’t be surprised in Manchin switches parties in the aftermath.”

Angus King (ME) is another who may switch.

[Dave W]

Sounds like you are whining...which you are. Despite your "knowledge", you forgot one thing - money. Gillespie had a lot less money than Warner. I think Gillespie has done a great job considering there has been little money. He didn't really start showing ads in the DC area until the first part of October (there were a few stray ones before that).

Fund raising has been a challenge since big money does not donate to campaigns expected to lose. Based on money available, he has done a great job. Ten days ago Gillespie was actually canceling ads since he did not have the money to pay for them.

Yes, I realize, Ed does not have much charisma and is not a conservative darling; however, voting 70 percent of something is better than zero percent of something, which is what we get with a Warner victory.

The odds are greatly in Warner's corner, but in a low turnout election, sometimes there are surprises.

[Dave W]

National Review had a great article on this about a month or so ago - as to why the governor is in trouble. The reason is the state legislature, both chambers controlled by republicans.

The repub state legislatures love the status quo - love the high taxes, the spending, the perks. The attitude has been, look gov, "we were here before you and we will be here after you, so go away."

They have been difficult to work with and the repub state legislatures are beholden to the unions.

Since the governor has not been able to get the legislature to do anything he wants them to do, plus taxes were raised, the gov is toast.

It's funny, dems raising taxes don't seem to bother the voters, only when repubs do it, it seems.

[Dave W]

Yes, I agree - Gillespie isn't that bad - he lacks charisma, but that is no crime. I don't think Warner has any charisma, either - not that it matters.

The folks on this site are fussy. If a candidate does not agree with them 100%, then they get bent out of shape. They are their own worst enemy.

Considering the money Gillespie did not have, I think he has run a really good campaign. For Gillespie to win, there needs to be a huge snowstorm in Northern Virgina and a flood in Norfolk. Cuccinelli under polled and his race was closer one year ago, so you never know. I hope he can do it, but it is one in a hundred (which does happen).

As to your other point, Virginia will never be red again. It has been lost. I don't know where you live, but I am in Northern Virginia and the demographics have changed so dramatically in the last 10 years that it will be difficult to overcome Northern Virginia's and Hampton Roads' liberal tilt.

[Dave W]

Oh my gosh...the tea party is not enthused. By all means, let's vote for the democrat then or just sit home. Yes, that will make things better. Let's see, I want to make sure I put that on my to do list on Tuesday. I much prefer Reid, can't wait until the dems retain the majority.

[kabar]

Sounds like you are whining...which you are. Despite your "knowledge", you forgot one thing - money. Gillespie had a lot less money than Warner. I think Gillespie has done a great job considering there has been little money. He didn't really start showing ads in the DC area until the first part of October (there were a few stray ones before that).

Gillespie's problem is not the lack of money, but the lack of a message. Cantor outspent Brat 10 to 1, but Brat had a better message that resonated with the grassroots. His supporters were highly motivated and energized.

The odds are greatly in Warner's corner, but in a low turnout election, sometimes there are surprises.

In a low turnout election, you do everything possible to turn out your base. Gillespie has not done that. He has failed to connect with conservatives, particularly on issues like immigration and the Constitution and the Rule of Law.

[kabar]

Oh my gosh...the tea party is not enthused. By all means, let's vote for the democrat then or just sit home. Yes, that will make things better. Let's see, I want to make sure I put that on my to do list on Tuesday. I much prefer Reid, can't wait until the dems retain the majority.

The Tea Party Federation of Virginia has 40,000 members. They are conservatives who will donate time and money to candidates who support their values. They are a resource for candidates who want to win.

Why hasn't Gillespie gone after Warner for signing the Gang of 8 bill that will provide amnesty to 11 million lawbreakers, triple legal immigration to over 30 million during the next decade and double guest worker programs to 1.4 million?

Why hasn't Gillespie attacked Obama for his impending Executive Amnesty(legalization, work permits, and SSNs) for millions of lawbreakers that will cost American jobs and depress wages? Gillespie has missed an important opportunity to impact the black vote in VA either thru depressing turnout or having some vote for him.

Blacks make up 20% of the electorate in VA. They will be hardest hit by Obama's amnesty.

Peter Kirsanow, as U.S. Civil Rights Commissioner, says in an Oct. 27 letter to Obama and the Congressional Black Caucus that U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services' recently revealed preparations for a huge ID "surge" upped his alarm over what the president has planned. “Granting work authorization to millions of illegal immigrants will devastate the black community, which is already struggling in the wake of the recession that began in 2007 and the subsequent years of malaise,” he explained.

Gillespie has run a terrible campaign and squandered any chance of winning. He is following the Rovian model that all GOP moderates use, which most of the time leads to defeat.

I will be a poll watcher again this year. I won't be sitting home. However, the GOP is dying in VA, which will be a solid blue state within a decade. Gillespie is just another in a long line of GOP candidates who are not conservative and turn off a major part of the base. Choosing the lesser of two evils is not the way to grow a party.

[Dave W]

I can't say I disagree with you, but considering that 30 to 40 percent of Fairfax County residents are foreign born, I have to believe that makes candidates hedge their campaigns. I believe it is a strategy of not upsetting the democrat base so they don't come out to vote.

The bottom line is we are going to get amnesty (they won't call it amnesty) with a Republican senate and the establishment does not care. I have no illusions of Gillespie's intention. I have to assume he will support it. The powers that want it are too great. Unfortunately, the voters have little say any more about policy. There was an article on that just a month or so ago. The researchers studied issues over a number of years and concluded average voters had little to no sway on policy. I'm sure neither of us are surprised about the conclusion.

[kabar]

I can't say I disagree with you, but considering that 30 to 40 percent of Fairfax County residents are foreign born, I have to believe that makes candidates hedge their campaigns. I believe it is a strategy of not upsetting the democrat base so they don't come out to vote.

It is 30% and many of them can't vote. The point is that you can use the immigration issue against the Dems if you link it to jobs like Dave Brat did. We have just had the two highest decades of legal immigration in our history with 27 million legal, permanent immigrants entering during the period 1990 to 2010. They are taking American jobs and depressing wages at a time when 20 million Americans are unemployed or underemployed. We have the lowest labor participation rate since 1978.

Jeff Sessions has provided the strategy, Becoming the Party of Work How the GOP can help struggling Americans, and itself, but the GOPe has failed to use it because it would rather cater to its corporate paymasters. Both parties have abandoned the American worker. The example of the emergence of UKIP in the UK should be followed by the GOP.

The bottom line is we are going to get amnesty (they won't call it amnesty) with a Republican senate and the establishment does not care. I have no illusions of Gillespie's intention. I have to assume he will support it. The powers that want it are too great. Unfortunately, the voters have little say any more about policy. There was an article on that just a month or so ago. The researchers studied issues over a number of years and concluded average voters had little to no sway on policy. I'm sure neither of us are surprised about the conclusion.

Legal immigration will make the Dems the permanent majority party, amnesty will just hasten the process. An amnesty will cost $6.3 trillion according to a Heritage study. The demographics of this country are rapidly changing fueled by immigration and minority birthrates. 87% of the 1.1 million legal permanent immigrants who enter annually are minorities as defined by the USG. By 2019 half of the children 18 and under will be minorities. Immigrants and minorities vote two to one Democrat. By 2043 half of the country will be minorities.

Average voters can make a difference if they mobilize around an issue. The Tea Party is a good example of a grassroots movement that did make a difference. It is the main reason why the Dems demonized it because they are afraid of real grassroots populism rather than the manufactured, astro-turfed movements they arrange.

Just as the UK reached a political consensus across all party lines that immigration needed to be reduced that resulted from the BNP's slogan "British jobs for British workers," we need to do the same thing here, American jobs for American workers. The Dems and the RINOs are pushing for more skilled labor to displace Americans graduating from college with huge student loans. It used to be that we needed immigrants to do jobs Americans won't do, now we need them to do jobs Americans can't do.

All we need is an articulate politician like Nigel Farage to connect the facts with jobs and you will see an entire movement arise. Obama's executive amnesty will be the spark to set off the conflagration if someone capitalizes on the opportunity. Amnesty is forever.

[EDINVA]

How does this explain Cuccinelli? He was as solidly conservative as we could hope for.

So long as govt grows, the VA demographic will change, ever to the left. Forget about immigrant, legal or otherwise. It’s the domestic transplants that are killing NOVA and VA.

[chimera]

States like VA and OH and IN used to be bulwarks against the Blue Tide flooding out of the Northeast. We see those being breached now. It started in ‘08 when IN went down, as well as VA and OH. We got IN back in ‘12 but things will be difficult if we don’t do something to get back the formerly reliable states, OH, VA, NC, and FL. We lose those, we’re done for.

[EDINVA]

Almost everyone I know, or know of, who lives in the NE wants out. If only those who created the mess would stay. But they don’t. They move to VA/NC/TN, etc and then complain that it’s not like “home.” SO they vote in those pols who will make their new homes like the ones they fled. Go figure.

[kabar]

How does this explain Cuccinelli? He was as solidly conservative as we could hope for.

Cuccinelli should have won. Unfortunately, the GOPe like Bill Bolling and the Rep mayor of Virginia Beach either didn't endorse him or endorsed McAwful. They would rather see a conservative lose than a Dem win. And having a third party candidate like supposed Libertarian Sarvis didn't help.

So long as govt grows, the VA demographic will change, ever to the left. Forget about immigrant, legal or otherwise. It’s the domestic transplants that are killing NOVA and VA.

There is no doubt that the Washington honey pot draws lots of liberal Beltway bandits to the area. But immigration has had a major impact on electoral politics in VA. In 1990 15% of the population of Fairfax County was foreign born; today it is 30%. In 1990 whites made up 83% of the population compared to 63% in 2010. The Asian population has doubled from 9% to 18%. Hispanics from 6% to 16%. The number of Limited English Proficiency students has more than tripled from 11,000 to 36,000.

The three biggest employers in Fairfax County are the FC Public Schools (22,852), the federal government (17,370), and the Fairfax County government (11,184). These are all strong Dem constituencies.

All of NoVA is experiencing similar demographic changes. Immigrants, legal and illegal, total 911,119 or 11.4 percent of the total population of Virginia in 2010 up from 5% in 1990 and 8.1% in 2000. 45% of the immigrant population are citizens. Virginia has the 9th highest number of immigrants in the country—more than states like Arizona and Nevada.

There are an estimated 210,000 to 270,000 illegal aliens in Virginia, which is down from 2007 when there were 250,000 to 375,000. An estimated 160,000 illegal aliens are in the Virginia workforce or 3.9% of the total workforce. By comparison, illegal aliens comprise 6.2% of the workforce in Maryland; 6.1% in the District of Columbia; and 5.4% in North Carolina.

Virginia's illegal alien population costs about $1.9 billion per year for education, medical care, and incarceration. Illegal immigration costs the average Virginia household $625 per year—a very conservative number. It also does not include the thousands of Virginians who have been killed or injured by illegal aliens.

[kabar]

[HokieMom]