I think Tillis will pull out a narrow win. The percentage of Democrats voting in early voting is +0.2% ahead of where they were in 2012 when Obama lost by 100,000 votes. Looking at the raw numbers, the Democrats are over-performing by about 40,000 as compared to 2010. Republican Burr won his statewide election for the Senate by 310,000 in 2010.
The fact that the Democrats are over-performing from 2012 is a bit surprising no? Given that was an already banner year.
And..U have to assume some of the Dem voters from 2010 2012 WILL vote against the Dems this time. They ain’t lining up necc because they are thrilled with the way country is heading. Coversely, VERY few Repubs will cross over, very few.
Well, what is the GOP doing? If it was above 2010, great. If not, uh oh.