Twenty-eight percent of respondents report that they have already voted; of those,
54% report they voted for Braley and 39% report they voted for Ernst. The party
registration of those who have already voted is 41% Democrat and 40% Republican,
and Braley leads in the votes already cast because of a distinct advantage with
registered independents.
The party registration of the sample overall is 35% Democrat and 39% Republican.
Among voters who are not registered in either party, Braley leads overall by 51% to 41%.
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Appears the independents are currently the ones carrying the vote for Braley.
The ‘independent’ sample size is about 160 voters.
10% would, I think, be well within the margin of error.
I don’t believe it.