>> But at what price does shale become unprofitable?
Great question. It’s not “a” price; whether production is profitable depends on various factors (where, how old, what technology are some I can think of off the top of my head).
Here’s some data to chew on:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/23/idUSL3N0SH5N220141023
If we’re lucky, thackney will weigh in on the subject. He is well informed.
As the price lowers, the rate of drilling will slow down. Marginal locations and companies with too much debt are going to stop spending as much.
But remember when the reach the “average” (median) break even price for a field, that means that half of the wells are produced at less cost. It will back down the drilling, it won’t shut down the drilling.
They won’t be shutting down wells already completed. The cost was already spent bringing them online. But if price drops low enough, some companies will not have the cash flow to keep adding new wells.