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Why Scientists Say Ebola Will Surge But Then Level Off Before The Disease Can Take Over The World
Forbes ^ | 10/15/2014 | F.D. Flam

Posted on 10/15/2014 2:31:45 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

With scientists projecting that the West African Ebola epidemic will mushroom, many people are asking how experts can be so sure it will hit a peak and come back down, considering there’s no vaccine or reliable treatment yet. Right now, the trend is steep and upwards. Of the more than 8,000 cases so far, most infections occurred in the last 3 to 4 weeks, said David Peters, Chair of the Department of International Health at Johns Hopkins University, where he and other experts gathered for a meeting Tuesday. The World Health Organization has projected a possible 10,000 new Ebola cases per week in West Africa by the end of this year.

How do they know when this frightening upward curve will level off, or if it will level off at all, as opposed to spreading around the globe and ravaging the human race like the pandemic in the movie Outbreak? The most dire forecast comes from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which predicted 1.4 million cases by early 2015. But even their graph levels off and then falls as the number of new cases eventually go to zero.

[SNIP]

Even without a vaccine, he said, the current outbreak will eventually “run out of fuel” as infected people either die or become immune. So far, at least, it appears that people who survive the disease aren’t vulnerable to reinfection.

(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: ebola; ebolaoutbreak; scientists
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To: SeekAndFind

F. Flam? Really?


21 posted on 10/15/2014 3:28:46 PM PDT by Hugin ("Do yourself a favor--first thing, get a firearm!",)
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To: RegulatorCountry
I read a book a few years ago called Return of the Black Death where the authors (Scott & Duncan) researched the plagues of Europe that ran from the 1300s to the 1600s and came to the conclusion that they weren't caused by fleas but a "highly infectious Ebola-like virus transmitted directly from person to person'...and if it were re-emerge now 'with today's highly mobile community the consequences would be catastrophic."
22 posted on 10/15/2014 3:34:29 PM PDT by Inyo-Mono (NRA)
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To: SeekAndFind

The same wizzards who brought us Globull Warming!


23 posted on 10/15/2014 3:35:56 PM PDT by Lion Den Dan
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To: SeekAndFind

bttt


24 posted on 10/15/2014 3:36:47 PM PDT by petercooper (Liberalism = Amnesty = Open Borders = Illegal Immigration = Ebola = Obama)
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To: SeekAndFind

That’s because everyone will be dead.


25 posted on 10/15/2014 3:41:07 PM PDT by kaehurowing
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To: kaehurowing

Me and my family will be fine. We will just has tag this sucker to death and eat are approved veggy meals.


26 posted on 10/15/2014 3:48:54 PM PDT by jimpick
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To: SeekAndFind

It will “run out of fuel” and “burn itself out”. The question is how much “fuel” it will consume before that happens.

http://news.ufl.edu/archive/2014/10/researchers-suggest-ebola-virus-may-be-creating-its-own-immunity.html

29% of those exposed get a clinical case of the disease, with about 21% of exposed individuals dying of the disease. 33% of those exposed have some immune response but never develop symptoms; in other words, they fight it off quickly without ever developing a high fever. 38% of those “exposed” (in the sense of having close, unprotected contact) do not develop any immune response and can be assumed to have gotten lucky.

Based on those numbers, Ebola should run out of “fuel” after somewhere between 1.4 and 3.3 billion people. That may not matter to liberals, who see those victims as sources of CO@ “pollution”, but it matters a great deal to me.


27 posted on 10/15/2014 3:57:08 PM PDT by Pollster1 ("Shall not be infringed" is unambiguous.)
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To: RegulatorCountry

This time its bats and Barak Hussein Obama.

One is just an animal the other is an American Hating, batspit crazy, Muzzie with a little communist and fascist thrown in for good measure.


28 posted on 10/15/2014 4:15:47 PM PDT by Sequoyah101 (There is no collateral damage.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Think of the impressive sizes of wild dog packs, after the disease expands much.


29 posted on 10/15/2014 4:41:21 PM PDT by familyop (We Baby Boomers are croaking in an avalanche of corruption smelled around the planet.)
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To: Pollster1

Your percentages add to 121%.


30 posted on 10/15/2014 5:10:34 PM PDT by The Truth Will Make You Free
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To: The Truth Will Make You Free
29% of those exposed get a clinical case of the disease, with about 21% of exposed individuals dying of the disease.

They're supposed to: "29% of those exposed get a clinical case of the disease, with about 21% of exposed individuals dying of the disease." All of those who die of Ebola get a clinical case of the disease before it kills them.

31 posted on 10/15/2014 6:08:25 PM PDT by Pollster1 ("Shall not be infringed" is unambiguous.)
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To: LibertarianLiz
Rise of the Planet of the Apes good call.
32 posted on 10/15/2014 7:20:58 PM PDT by wtd
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To: jimmygrace
How is this of any practical value? I have to get an Ebola infection and survive, then they’re pretty sure that I won’t get it again...

No, every year millions of people in the US build antibodies to whatever flu is going around, they were infected just like all those who got sick but they didn't. You can bet there are thousands who have been infected by Ebola but there system beat it without showing any symptoms. Believe me, people are being infected without becoming sick, they're system just kicked it's @#$ right away.
33 posted on 10/15/2014 7:20:58 PM PDT by JeepRubicon
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To: 353FMG
The vast majority of the death toll were in just seven years, 1346-1353. Interesting graphic here:


34 posted on 10/15/2014 7:28:10 PM PDT by Vigilanteman (Obama: Fake black man. Fake Messiah. Fake American. How many fakes can you fit in one Zer0?)
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To: LibertarianLiz

Another movie that was done with considerable cooperation from the CDC itself was “Contagion”. If you haven’t seen it you should but I will say you’ll wash your hands a lot more after seeing it!


35 posted on 10/16/2014 8:53:11 AM PDT by MeganC (It took Democrats four hours to deport Elian Gonzalez)
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