Second part of response following response post #78.
> “But Cruz cannot reasonably hope for a Reagan-like landslide. No conservative can. Reagan’s America was much more white, and therefore much friendlier to Republicans and conservatives. Remember, Romney did about as well with whites percentage wise as Reagan did in 1980. But thanks to immigration-driven demographic changes, the difference is one between an easy landslide win in 1980 and an embarrassing four point loss in 2012.”
Again it is evident you are injecting your own observables into this mix. Several independent analyses based on scientifically representative samples concluded it was the Perot demographic that sunk Romney. This is the blue collar working class demographic that did not vote for a presidential candidate. They will vote for a conservative and no one else. They number 6 million plus strong.
Cruz can carry a large portion of Latinos. The Latino demographic will either vote for a Latino or for a non-Latino who their union bosses (e.g. SEIU) say vote for. But they will defy union orders if there is an unapproved Latino on the ballot. That’s the way their loyalty runs. Therefore, Cruz can carry California.
I’m aware of the millions of working class whites who sat out the 2012 election. I agree had Romney earned their vote then he’d be president. But I was talking about your unrealistic dreams of a Cruz landslide. Obama won the popular vote by almost five million, so even if Romney had got all six million of the missing votes, he would hardly have won a landslide popular victory. He would have won a comfortable electoral college victory, but probably less than Obama’s actual victory.
And do you really think Cruz can carry California? I admire your optimism, but come on! That’s crazy.
Hispanics are natural Democrats. Plenty of polling data shows them to hold liberal views on most of the big issues. And if that isn’t proof enough, then their voting history should be.
So what do you consider to be a large portion of the Hispanic vote? Cruz didn’t win Latinos in his senate race. He, like all Republicans in Texas, owes his victory to winning an overwhelming share of the white vote.
I think you way overstate Cruz’ appeal to most Hispanics. Why would brown Mexicans in California support a white Cuban who disagrees with them on most issues?
It’s over in California. The demographics won’t allow it. The state is too diverse and it’s white population isn’t conservative enough (like in Texas). It sucks to write off a fifth of the electoral votes needed to win, but it is what it is. California is lost.