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Barone continues to ignore the impact of the changing demographics of this country fueled by immigration and minority birthrates. He uses old models of immigration and past elections. I confronted him on this at a CATO presentation several years ago. He basically responded that the GOP must "adapt" or die.

There will be no wave. The Reps will be fortunate to hold on to the House. Taking the Senate is a 50/50 proposition. You don't remove incumbents easily, especially senators.

Republicans will gain seats in both the House and the Senate. I am not sure that they will win control of the Senate, though. It is very true that changing demographics will make the currently-composed GOP less competitive in the future. However, in off-year elections, the typical dem voter is too busy smoking weed and playing video games to go out and vote.

Barone continues to ignore the impact of the changing demographics of this country fueled by immigration and minority birthrates.

That's a good point, and not taking that into consideration is a problem we all have understanding these elections .
It's about self interest, and not so much about the welfare of the Country.

When I get out of my neighborhood and get on a subway in a large city I feel like a white minority. About half of he voting adults don't pay Fed. Taxes so they don't worry about excessive spending on welfare programs..
They do worry about money spent on military operations since that means less money for them.

As I have said before on FR it comes down to this;
"Vote for me and I will get you someone else's money."
The Republican's have a problem overcoming that appeal.- Tom

Your point on demographics is well taken. In the last presidential election, MR defeated BHO by about 20 points among white voters. Several decades ago, that fact alone would have been enough to guarantee a landslide victory and enough to win all but a handful of states.

Changing demographic factors help explain why the Dems have won the popular vote in five of the last six presidential elections.

Midterm elections, however, are completely different than presidential elections. Demographics are different. The electorate in midterm elections tends to be smaller, older, whiter, more disciplined, more conservative, therefore more Republican than is the case in presidential elections.

Further, the party out of power usually makes gains in midterm elections, and this tends to be especially pronounced in the 6th year of an incumbent administration. In addition the Dems have the added problem of having to defend so many US Senate seats in red states easily carried by both McCain and MR where BHO’s poll ratings are even lower than the national average.