Posted on 09/23/2014 8:09:54 AM PDT by Raebie
World Health Organization researchers issued a dire new forecast for the Ebola epidemic Tuesday, one that sees 20,000 cases by November, much sooner than previous estimates. And 70 percent of patients are dying.
That's a big increase over the previous estimates of a 50 percent fatality rate.
“These data indicate that without drastic improvements in control measures, the numbers of cases of and deaths from Ebola virus disease are expected to continue increasing from hundreds to thousands per week in the coming months,” the WHO Ebola Response Team, led by Dr. Christopher Dye, wrote in a report rushed into print by the New England Journal of Medicine.
(Excerpt) Read more at nbcnews.com ...
Ebola Zaire had a near 90% death rate. Other forms of Ebola were in the 60-75% range, so this is going along with that.
Also, in other outbreaks the villages had no idea they were dealing with Ebola until many were already dead. With proper hydration and food, we know we can drop the fatalities. We are getting to a lot of these people sooner, with some treatment. That is dropping the rate down to the 70% rate.
The figures coming out of the city are clearly wrong.
The early medics were not up to speed on the strain of Ebola.
Things are different now.
Are the Fox News dopes STILL saying nothing to worry about here in the US? What’s his name Bernie Seigal? And the other foreign Dr. on Sunday morning all downplaying Ebola from the get go. If the death rate turns to 100% will they then say, “Oh sorry we F’ed up here and were so wrong. Bend over and kiss your ass goodbye, we’re now all going to die....”? Will he say that? I want to hear him, now.
But when you say lots of fluids, are you talking about merely ingesting them or also receiving them via IV in a hospital? Once the hospitals are overrun with patients the scenario may change...that’s what concerns me.
The Nigerian medicos were educated, well fed (they have Shop Rite’s in Lagos), lived in homes with water seal flush potties, were vaccinated and still roughly half of those who got it died.
http://www.shoprite.com.ng/OurStores.html
Their ‘Specials’ look not unlike the local specials at Kroger or Pathmark.
I don’t see ‘bushmeat’ listed there though. In fact, it would appear that this particular outbreak originated when a bat bit a 2yr old.
And I guarantee Dr. Adedevoh lived somewhere like this at the VERY least, probably somewhere much more luxurious in fact. Lekki is ‘middle class’ now, not unlike Long Island after WWII:
Clearly that one was just completed.
The point being, the Nigerian medicos were middle class, upper middle class and Dr. Adedevoh was upper class (her bio makes this plain). Even middle class Lagosians have flush potties now, even if only one in the home (like most homes built in the US until the 1970’s). And most of them no longer shop in the open markets, preferring to shop at the grocery stores like we have here. Social status is very important to the up-and-comers there, open markets are something your grandmother shopped at.
None of this prevented their contracting ebola. And half of them died from it.
Mr. Kipling described this situation better than I ever could:
Take up the White Man’s burden—
Send forth the best ye breed—
Go, bind your sons to exile
To serve your captives’ need;
To wait, in heavy harness,
On fluttered folk and wild—
Your new-caught sullen peoples,
Half devil and half child.
Take up the White Man’s burden—
In patience to abide,
To veil the threat of terror
And check the show of pride;
By open speech and simple,
An hundred times made plain,
To seek another’s profit
And work another’s gain.
Take up the White Man’s burden—
The savage wars of peace—
Fill full the mouth of Famine,
And bid the sickness cease;
And when your goal is nearest
(The end for others sought)
Watch sloth and heathen folly
Bring all your hope to nought.
Take up the White Man’s burden—
No iron rule of kings,
But toil of serf and sweeper—
The tale of common things.
The ports ye shall not enter,
The roads ye shall not tread,
Go, make them with your living
And mark them with your dead.
Take up the White Man’s burden,
And reap his old reward—
The blame of those ye better
The hate of those ye guard—
The cry of hosts ye humour
(Ah, slowly!) toward the light:—
“Why brought ye us from bondage,
Our loved Egyptian night?”
Take up the White Man’s burden—
Ye dare not stoop to less—
Nor call too loud on Freedom
To cloak your weariness.
By all ye will or whisper,
By all ye leave or do,
The silent sullen peoples
Shall weigh your God and you.
Take up the White Man’s burden!
Have done with childish days—
The lightly-proffered laurel,
The easy ungrudged praise:
Comes now, to search your manhood
Through all the thankless years,
Cold, edged with dear-bought wisdom,
The judgment of your peers.
Mrs. AV
Our boots fighting an enemy they can’t see.
Were they trained for such an operation?
The purpose of government is make every problem worse. War on poverty. War on drugs. Syrian Rebels etc.
[ As far as I know every known Ebola patient that came to the USA has recovered. That is called 100% folks.
We can cure Ebola and it does not take a fancy vaccine as everyone knows from reading the earliest reports.
General good health lots of fluids and proper diet will let the body beat this thing. ]
I opened a thread about this very thing: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3205231/posts
We?
Where's China in all this?
I seem to recall that China has been investing heavily in Africa, probably because China needs African natural resources to feed its manufacturing industry.
Let China fix the problem. China is always eager to everybody else's job, let China do the job of fighting this epidemic in Africa, too.
They've been and continue to be criminally negligent in their response to this.
They need to restrict air travel. They need quarantines. They need lockdowns. And they need to remove the infected from the general population and quarantine those exposed from the general population.
China’s fix will be to let them all die. They, quite simply, need both the land and resources.
Excellent! When are you moving?
Whaddya mean yer not?
I lived there when it looked like Monrovia, 40+ years ago. I recovered from a case of treatment resistant malaria at a bush hospital run by Southern Baptist missionaries in upstate Nigeria. When it looked like the ‘bush’ you see in the Libera/Guinea/Sierra Leone news articles recently.
Amazingly you missed the entire point.
If a Patrick Sawyer were to present in the ER of a big city hospital, crashing out with vomiting, pooping and bleeding, the entire staff of the ER would be at risk. Just like in Nigeria. Unless they’re prepared beforehand. Dunno about that. I was in an ER recently. I must have missed all the staff and MD’s who were even ‘masked, gloved and gowned’ to meet every single patient in there. Maybe every other hospital has those?
And the mortality wouldn’t be terribly different. 50%, roughly.
Unless we’re NOT REALLY out of ZMapp after all...
my thoughts exactly. you would think our leaders would be told that even in the PC age we’re in ebola is no discriminator in who it kills.
China takes the rare earth metals...and leaves the mess to us. You're right... they should do their part. Or we should stay the hell out of there.
We have different values than China's communist leaders. We value individual human lives, at least within our own country, and a significant fraction of us care enough about foreigners to save Africa for humanitarian reasons. If Ebola hits China, they can lighten up on their one child policy, and they may not care a whole lot about the number of dead. I don't think China would bother trying to fight this epidemic, not when they profit from opening up Africa and lose little that they value in a domestic epidemic.
If Ebola hits the United States, our friends and neighbors are going to die. I don't want my neighbors to die; I don't even want Obama voters to die of Ebola. We are the only country in the world that has the existing capabilities to take on an Ebola epidemic of this size, and I'd rather face it in Africa than wait until Ebola comes here and penetrates multiple borders multiple times regardless of what last minute efforts we make to finally secure the borders. I expect Obama to shockingly mishandle this crisis (as with all the crises he creates or responds to), but I suspect even Obama can't come up with a plan so terrible that it will be worse than doing nothing. Obama has proven me wrong on that expectation many times, but this time around I think it really is beyond his level of incompetence to come up with a plan worse than just waiting. This outbreak has significant potential to be worse than anything since the Black Plague.
Just one more way for Obama to “level the playing field”.
A link to this thread has been posted on the Ebola Surveillance Thread
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