I think Ernst has tea party support, so you theory wouldn’t apply in Iowa. NC, perhaps.
Sarah came out for Joni early on.
You’re right. Palin endorsed her and I imagine she will show up in Iowa at some point to lend a hand. It takes grassroots efforts to win elections. Ernst can do it, I think. However, for some reason, a tea party supported candidate seems to repel the Republican blue bloods as they withhold their support. Almost like they have a desire to not win if it isn’t on their terms.