Karl Rove is not that insightful. He's in complete denial about what he has done and until he, and people like him, are completely removed from the political landscape and out of power, the trend away from "establishment candidates" will continue.
People like him will cause the death of the GOP.
I believe you are correct. Rove cost Bush the success of his presidency. Because of Rove's catastrophically stupid advice Bush will go down in history as a failed president and object of ridicule.
Beyond that, Rove has done severe harm to this country which may never be repaired. If this creep of a man had any integrity at all he would have long since hidden his face from the scorn of the public and would have seriously considered suicide.