“All of the analysis on this thread seems to ignore Russian nuclear weapons. It is no longer armies that determine the victory, but rockets, subversion of all kinds, and terrorism.”
The nuclear arsenal of civilized nations is nothing but window dressing, because NO civilized nation want to be the first to drop a bomb. Its like a Mexican Standoff, the first to fire loses! So if wars remain conventional, then nukes wont matter, and Russia’s conventional military capability is garbage. Do you have any examples of decisive victories with nothing but rockets, subversion, and terrorism?
The key word is "civilized." The Russians, Chinese, and their allies in countries like Iran and North Korea, do not blush at mass murder, so long as they can get away with it. Hence why Russian defectors have warned of Russian preparations for world war 3 involving the use of "false flag" terrorist strikes against the United States:
" I asked a former Russian intelligence official how Moscow might successfully pull off a surprise nuclear attack against the United States without suffering a devastating retaliation. He replied without hesitation, saying: "If you ever hear that Arab terrorists have attacked an American city with nuclear weapons don't believe it." The attack, he said, would be from Russia."
http://www.jrnyquist.com/nyquist_2005_0813.htm