Democrats now have a 51 percent chance of holding the Senate

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2014/09/16/democrats-now-have-a-51-percent-chance-of-holding-the-senate/ ^ | September 16,2014 | Chris Cizilla

[Chgogal]

Democrats are now (very slightly) favored to hold the Senate majority on Nov. 4, according to Election Lab, The Post's statistical model of the 2014 midterm elections.

Election Lab puts Democrats' chances of retaining their majority at 51 percent — a huge change from even a few months ago, when the model predicted that Republicans had a better than 80 percent chance of winning the six seats they need to take control. (Worth noting: When the model showed Republicans as overwhelming favorites, our model builders — led by George Washington University's John Sides — warned that the model could and would change as more actual polling — as opposed to historical projections — played a larger and larger role in the calculations. And, in Republicans' defense, no one I talked to ever thought they had an 80 percent chance of winning the majority.)

So, what exactly has changed to move the Election Lab projection? Three big things:

[antidisestablishment]

The GOP has been plenty smart. They have been playing conservatives like a fiddle ever since Reagan. “Just vote Mealy Moderate in and then, once we have enough moderates, they will magically produce a conservative government.”

We’ve been playing at the table and never looking for the sucker, because it’s been us the whole time. The GOP has made it perfectly clear what they think of conservatives.

[Din Maker]

The GOP has made it perfectly clear what they think of conservatives.
______________________________________________________________________________________________

Yes they have, but, now is payback time. For years Conservatives held their noses and voted for the person on the GOP side of the ballot. This year, the game changes; no votes for RINOs. Let’s see if the likes of Thad Cochran can win without the Conservative base.

[zeestephen]

The Washington Post analysis is quite similar to the Real Clear Politics numbers.

We need 6 Democrat seats for a majority.

Plus, we must hold Georgia, which is a Republican seat.

According to RCP:

(1) WV, SD, MT - solid for GOP

(2) AR, LA, AK - GOP lead - within margin of error

(3) NC, CO, IA - Democrat lead - within margin of error

(4) GA - GOP lead - within margin of error

[zeestephen]

Thanks for your candor.

I’ve been making the same point for years.

If we lose by fraud, we must blame ourselves for being unprepared and allowing it.

We should have learned that lesson in 1960.

Shame on us if it happens again.

[mad_as_he$$]

Winner!

[Hostage]

Obama, without consulting with Congress and without legal authorization, ordered postponement of the Employer Mandate until after this November’s election.