Yikes! Does your model assume the same rate of transmission in the developed world as in Africa? That would seem unlikely.
Indeed.
AIDS spreads similarly to the way Ebola spreads (both are blood-borne pathogens). The majority of AIDs cases are in sub-Saharan Africa.
There is a HUGE difference between the US public health system and that of Africa.
Yes, it does. And that's one of the factors that will work to lower the projections over time. But while it's still almost exclusively in West Africa, the DTR may actually increase.
“Does your model assume the same rate of transmission in the developed world as in Africa? That would seem unlikely.”
I have not heard a reasonable explanation why the “developed” world would have a lower rate of transmission. Better sanitation of course, but that sure doesn’t seem to prevent the transmission of the common cold.
Plus, in the developed world a sick person can travel to and from work (bus, train, elevator, etc.) and cover 20 miles in a day. A guy in some small village in Africa might travel 4 blocks in a week.
Our health care system is obviously better, but there are only a certain number of hospital beds. A quick search showed 10,000 in Minnesota. Maybe goes up to 50,000 with the National Guard, etc. setting up field hospitals. How many will still not be able to get treatment.
I would like to know what has stopped previous Ebola outbreaks in the past, when annual deaths were in the hundreds. I wonder if there is a certain number, or circumstance (such as the recent cases in large cities with international airports) where it becomes a “cat out of the bag” situation.
Prayers for those afflicted, and for those treating them.