Glad I’m helping.
I’m still not sure that your exponent represents what you want it to represent. It seems to work. The projection 3 months out, is reasonable for a model that includes a positive increase to the rate of change. but without a clear understanding of what it represents, I’m not sure when you go out beyond 3 months that it’s still a valid model.
Try this. Try to express it as a simple day to day formula formula without exponents. Day1 = Day0*whatever+/-whatelse. If you can do that, we can test to see if the exponent formula is correct.
I do see a similar flex point in the graphs of other models at that same point. I agree that any error in my model will become greater as the model projects further into the future. But that's going to be a limitation of most models, I think.
Try this. Try to express it as a simple day to day formula formula without exponents. Day1 = Day0*whatever+/-whatelse. If you can do that, we can test to see if the exponent formula is correct.
I'm kind of a literal person... what do you mean by "whatever+/-whatelse"? My exponent?