Rothenberg: Senate GOP Gains At Least 7 Seats (but we need to make it happen)

Roll Call Politics ^ | September 8, 2014 | Stuart Rothenberg

[Clintonfatigued]

While the current Rothenberg Political Report ratings don’t show it, I am now expecting a substantial Republican Senate wave in November, with a net gain of at least seven seats.

But I wouldn’t be shocked by a larger gain.

Rothenberg Political Report ratings reflect both where a race stands and, more importantly, where it is likely headed on Election Day. Since early polls rarely reflect the eventual November environment, either in terms of the candidates’ name recognition and resources or of the election’s dynamic, there is often a gap between how I categorize each race (my ratings) and what I privately assume will happen in November.

[Clintonfatigued]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WcBnJw-H2wQ

[Clintonfatigued]

Ping

[randita]

Right now, this cycle looks much like 2010, when Democrats with reasonable profiles got crushed in Republican-leaning and swing states. Rep. Brad Ellsworth lost his Senate bid by 18 points in Indiana, Sen. Blanche Lincoln lost re-election by 21 in Arkansas, and Rep. Paul Hodes lost his Senate race by more than 23 in New Hampshire. The much-ballyhooed Robin Carnahan of Missouri lost her Senate bid by almost 14 points, while Wisconsin incumbent Russ Feingold lost by 5 points.

Uh huh. It was about this time in 2010 that analysts finally woke up to the trend and adjusted their numbers accordingly. In Sept. 2010, most trusted pollsters were predicting somewhere in the range of 30 GOP pick ups. It ended up being 60+ gains.

[InterceptPoint]

In Sept. 2010, most trusted pollsters were predicting somewhere in the range of 30 GOP pick ups. It ended up being 60+ gains.

I remember it well.

[Clump]

What I remember was how the House was a blowout and the Dems cheated like hell and narrowly held on to at least three senate seats that the GOP should have had in the bag.

[Oldeconomybuyer]

The US Senate race this year has to be a 2010-style shellacking otherwise a few liberal republicans will do a Jim Jeffords. Sorry, I don’t trust RINO’s any further than I can spit.

[DiogenesLamp]

It's my opinion that we need to lose two seats; McConnell in Kentucky and Cochran in Mississippi. If these two win, the chances of reforming the system are pretty much lost.

Again, there are more important things to worry about than a Republican Majority in the Senate. A Senate controlled by Charlie Crists and Arlen Specters is worse than a Democrat Majority.

[Don Corleone]

We need 67 sure votes.

[Viennacon]

Agree. Cochran especially. What a total foul pestilant man

[AuH2ORepublican]

“We need 67 sure votes.”

---

Well, we’re not going to get them this November, or in Nov. 2016, or in Nov. 2018 ....

Let’s get to 53-55 Senators this November, and maybe we can get to 60 after Nov. 2018.

[randita]

Thought it might be useful to post a list of candidates:

2014 U.S. SENATE CANDIDATES

State	Republican	Democrat
AK	Dan Sullivan	Mark Begich
AR	Tom Cotton	Mark Pryor
CO	Cory Gardner	Mark Udall
GA-OPEN	Michelle Nunn	David Perdue
IA-OPEN	Joni Ernst	Bruce Braley
IL	Jim Oberweis	Dick Durbin
KS	Pat Roberts	Chad Taylor
KY	Mitch McConnell	Alison Grimes
LA	Bill Cassidy	Mary Landrieu
MI-OPEN	Teri Lynn Land	Gary Peters
MN	Mike McFadden	Al Franken
MS	Thad Cochran	Travis Childers
MT-OPEN	Steve Daines	Amanda Curtis
NC	Thom Tillis	Kay Hagan
NH	TBD	Jeanne Shaheen
NJ	Jeff Bell	Cory Booker
OR	Monica Wehby	Jeff Merkley
SD-OPEN	Mike Rounds	RIck Weiland
VA	Ed Gillespie	Mark Warner
WV-OPEN	Shelley Moore Capito	Natalie Tennant

[randita]

(;

Good to see you again!

Wonder if PJ is running the odds this time. Haven’t seen anything yet.

[randita]

2014 Crystal Ball Outlook (Larry Sabato)

[JRandomFreeper]

Your list doesn't seem to include Texas.

I know that Cornyn has a general election in November, because I won't be voting for that liberal bastard after his clotures votes on removing the debt limit.

And I'm working hard to campaign against him on the ground.

Liberal republicans need to lose.

/johnny

[InterceptPoint]

Wonder if PJ is running the odds this time. Haven’t seen anything yet.

Me neither. Hope all is well.

[DiogenesLamp]

Liberal republicans need to lose.

/johnny

Agreed.

[JRandomFreeper]

They are. They won a lot of dirty primary elections, but winning in November is a whole different ballgame.

It only took one election cycle for the Whigs to become history. People just wouldn't vote for them anymore.

/johnny

[bonehead4freedom]

The strategy is say nothing do nothing and then cruise to a majority. If they do get the majority watch how quick they’ll cut a deal with democrats to institute a power sharing agreement so everyone will see that they’re “fair”. Of course it will never occur to them to show the democrats the same “fairness” that the democrats showed them. You’ll also see the shutting out of conservatives and accepting the democrats agenda since they didn’t campaign on “extreme ideologies” and the voters want to see both parties get along and get things done in Washington.
The GOP elite have it all worked out for you.You just vote for their hand picked candidates and write your checks and leave all the decision making to the professionals.You common people just don’t have the ability to know what’s best for you. Just ask John McCain or read Karl’s chalk board.

[Oldeconomybuyer]

Yep.