Posted on 09/06/2014 2:00:55 PM PDT by Kaslin
As the President continues to struggle with a strategy regarding what we should do about ISIS, one of the key questions being batted around is how to define the precise level of threat which ISIS poses to the United States. It’s a valid question, actually, so it was with interest that I followed a link on this subject to an opinion piece by CNN’s national security analyst, Peter Bergen. The title gives a fairly solid summary of the contents. ISIS threat to U.S. mostly hype.
ISIS has Americans worried. Two-thirds of those surveyed in a recent Pew Research poll said they consider the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria to be a “major threat” to this country. But are such fears really justified?
Despite the impression you may have had from listening to U.S. officials in recent weeks, the answer is probably not really.
For a start, U.S. officials have been inflating the numbers of Americans fighting for ISIS, which has muddied the issue for the public.
As I implied above, there is a valid discussion to be had about the precise level of threat posed by ISIS in broad strokes. Some have argued that, while ISIS certainly wouldn’t mind seeing a large number of Americans killed, they are fairly tied up at the moment with their efforts to take and hold territory in their prospective caliphate. How many people can they spare to attack the American homeland? But such arguments become rather moot when the black masked maniacs begin releasing videos of their members chopping off the heads of Americans. That makes the threat direct, immediate and deserving of a vigorous response. But let’s get back to the CNN article.
You’ll note that Bergen (bio) begins his piece by saying For a start, when talking about inaccurate depictions of the number of American citizens fighting with the terrorists. This would seem to imply that there are more reasons to follow which demonstrate why ISIS is more hype than harbinger of doom. But if you read the entire article, there are no other reasons offered. Half of the piece talks about various estimates of Americans fighting for the terrorists and the rest is about why war would be a bad idea.
Frankly, I think Bergen needed a few more bullet points in his presentation. If he wants to say that the number of American ISIS fighters is more like a dozen, that’s fine. Call it six. That doesn’t really matter to me, beyond the understandable desire to find those six people in particular and erase them. But achieving that laudable goal doesn’t do much in terms of eliminating the threat of ISIS in its entirety. So where was the rest of Bergen’s analysis?
Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised. Since this story first erupted, Peter has been singing a fairly consistent tune, no matter how many stories of brutality and horror make it to cable news channels. On August 20th, he described the situation as still “only a potential threat” to the US. And he clearly hasn’t thought much of any serious military response to ISIS, suggesting strongly – if not saying outright – only two days later that maybe we should just pay the terrorists the ransoms they demand.
If there’s not an escape or a successful rescue effort, Western governments whose citizens are held by ISIS have only the options of either a negotiation involving ransom or the real possibility that their hostages may be executed.
This is the sobering choice that faces President Barack Obama and his national security advisers. It’s not much of a choice at all.
Leaving aside the emotional appeal of paying up and hopefully saving the lives of loved ones, this world view doesn’t seem to have worked well so far. Several countries, including Germany, France, Italy and Spain, have paid millions of dollars to these terrorists. And rather than calming them down and prompting more civil behavior, the payments have served only to embolden them and finance their illegal arms purchases.
Coming from this perspective, it is perhaps not surprising that Bergen would continue to claim ISIS isn’t much of a threat. But reality is intruding quickly and seems to beg to differ.
bump!
Beware the conclusions of amateur analysts (and many of the pros as well). In this particular field you don’t have to be very far wrong to be catastrophically wrong. What they are really talking about here with regard to “threat to the U.S.” is the ability to project force to the U.S. homeland. There are other ways to hurt the U.S., of course, but more to the point, everything said about ISIS here was equally true of al Qaeda prior to 9/11. And then it wasn’t.
thanks but honest ... am undeserving.
There seems to be some confusion about “American” citizens that are choosing to travel to the Middle East and enlist in the cause of the Islamic State, and the very real threat they pose to the territory once known as “the United States of America”.
For one thing, the number is more than likely underestimated. There are all kinds of protests that can be raised against that abstraction that was “the United States of America”, and not all of them are raised within that territory. There is effectively NO barrier to the widespread entry or re-entry of enemy combatants through the border with Mexico, and the number of ISIS agents already here is probably impossible to estimate now.
The date September 11 is fast approaching, and there is an almost certain likelihood of some vast conspiracy taking place, with simultaneous strikes in many widely scattered sites, those against malls or various educational institutions being prime targets. This is terrorism on an immense scale, such as never before seen on the North American continent, and we do not have a Vladimir Putin who is ruthless enough to take necessary countermeasures.
There is potential for a vast amount of collateral damage. And not all of it will be done to “American” citizens, in this country under false pretenses, but who sympathize with the cause of ISIS and the Worldwide Caliphate. But these bearers of “false colors” will surely bear the brunt of the retaliation.
the luxury house on the beach. an amazing picture. where from?
Prayers for America. Prayers for Families. Prayers for every American. May the time come and pass and may the remainder of this year pass in peace and calm on America’s soil. Please Lord. Our tears Jesus ... Amen.
I don’t know if it’s solved but it’s a heck of a good start.
I’ll get back with you Friday on this.
These pricks will do ANYTHING to protect their messiah Obama..Perhaps if Bergen doesn’t believe ISIS is a threat, he should go meet with them..give the head honcho a big bear hug, if he makes it out of there with his head still attached to his body then he should consider himself lucky
Well, that’s just so reassuring............/sarc
Perhaps he’d care to do some on-the-scene reporting?
He could embed with the ISIS troops and give us the real picture?
At its most literal sense they aren’t a threat to the US.Its not like they can come here and take over the nation. They are however a threat to Americans. If thats his point then he’s an idiot.
FR: judicialwatch.org: Imminent Terrorist Attack Warning Update: Ft. Bliss Increases Security
looks more like a hotel. Notice all the umbrellas on the beach.
The leftists are petrified that a threat from abroad will overwhelm their plan to remake American society.
It only takes one Mooslim and one bomb in a mall...a church...a marathon...
Why is Obama so important to them?
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